NCAAB Ranked at Unranked

[LLXC]

Thought I would bring this back since nobody else is taking care of it. NoChance introduced it to me and I am following his criteria.

1) Ranked team at Unranked team
2) Opening Line has unranked as the favorite. If PK, play for half a unit (this is optional but seems to work).
3) This follows USA Today/ESPN ranking. When they don't coincide, and a ranked team in the USA Today/ESPN is at an unranked team according to USA Today/ESPN but ranked by AP, this can be tricky but we will still play it for record sake.
4) I will use the opening line for the record.

I missed the first four plays of the season - two had ranked at unranked with unranked favorite, and the other two were at a PK. Favorite went 0-1-1 and PK went 2-0 according to NoChance.

[Jaguar101]

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4) I will use the opening line for the record.

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Why?

[4Tay]

So you're betting with the unranked home favorite?

[LLXC]

Other than the first four that I missed, here are the other results so far (if the first four are wrong, please show me as I'm too lazy to backtrack and try to find out since I am assuming they are accurate):

12/10 (22)Maryland @ Boston College -1 W
12/18 (14)Oklahoma St @ Tennessee -3 L
12/22 (20)Nevada @ Akron -1.5 L
12/28 (13)Washington @ USC -2 W
12/30 (9)UConn @ West Virginia PK W
12/30 (18)Nevada @ Gonzaga -3.5 L
1/3 (18)Clemson @ Florida St PK L
1/4 (10)Pittsburg @ Syracuse PK L
1/4 (24)Michigan St @ Iowa PK W
1/6 (22)Notre Dame @ Georgetown -4 W
1/7 (24)Michigan St @ Indiana -5 W

Unranked Favorite Record: 4-4-1

Unranked PK Record: 4-2

[LLXC]

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4) I will use the opening line for the record.

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Why?

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Too complicated when the line moves too much - sometimes it moves in favor, and sometimes it moves against. I don't even try to bother predicting anymore - I just play the opening line.

[LLXC]

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So you're betting with the unranked home favorite?

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Unranked home favorite or pk opening line.

[LLXC]

1/9 (21)West Virginia @ Notre Dame -4

This is one of those "weird ones." Notre Dame is ranked 22 in the AP Poll but not in the USA Today/ESPN poll. I am sticking to NoChance's decision and am playing it. I don't think this comes up often, as teams are usually both ranked on the two top 25 ranking boards. It's ultimately your decision if you want to play it but it will be used in the record. If you care, I am.

[LLXC]

I honestly lost track of how this did last year (maybe last two) but before that it did well (according to NoChance and the games/records he showed me).

[NoChance]

Last year it ended up something like 11-16....it was about 5 games under .500. It was my first losing year with this system. This year has not started off all that great either but the first 6 weeks of the new year is usually best for this system because most are conference games and the teams know each other better, thus more home favorites and more upsets.

I took more responsibility with my regular job and have less time to post then before. Thanks for picking this up.

There are many variations of this trend. Some use opening lines. Others use lines only just before game time. Some include the games that are a pick....you get the picture. Find out what works for you and stick with it. For me, I generally take the line early if the ranked team is near the bottom half of the list (15-25) and wait for a better line if they ranked team is in the top 10 (public usually bets the ranked team getting points thus giving us better line). It is a judgement call on the mid-ranked teams.

[LLXC]

Unranked Favorite Record: 4-5-1
Unranked PK Record: 4-2

1/10 (11)Duke @ Georgia Tech -3