25 NL - AA makes set on turn, turn makes a flush

[ybother]

If I am say 60/40 that the turn is a flush made good, whats my play and why?

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $9.75
hero: $50.25
Button: $19.01
SB: $14.77
BB: $28.25

Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $1.25</font>, Button calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($3.1, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $2</font>, Button calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($7.1, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $3.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises all-in $15.76</font>, hero ??????

[Unknown Soldier]

60% that he has the flush?

3.5:1 to fill up, you are getting 2.2:1

so you need to win about 31% of the time

if he has a flush 60% of the time, you are going to win 22% of the time, so 0.22*60 = 13%, so you only need to win 18/40 = 45% of the time if he doesnt, and you will definitely do that.

[Unknown Soldier]

i wonder what the break even point is.

0.31- (0.22*x) = (0.9*(1-x)) - 0.9 because he might have a f draw, idk its an estimate


0.31 - 0.22x = 0.9 - 0.9x

0.68x = 0.59

x = 0.87, so if he has a flush 87% of the time you should call

that seems a bit high, I guess we are getting good odds. I'm tired, does that working seem good?

[ybother]

the line .31 -.22x = .9-.9x

worked out

is .22 = .13x

or 60%

but I think your math just proves the 31% win rate to call.

I am using 60/40 on my thinking process, but what intrigues me is the balance between the math of the call and my read on the situation. I have to assume its only 60/40.