AA vs Huge Flop Overbet NL50

[Shoot59]

villain has been LP 41/6/0.6 over 50 hands

My first thought was this bet smelled like some kind of draw (although that wouldn't fit this villains tendencies so far)...what's your play?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($7)
UTG ($44.40)
MP ($35.30)
CO ($31.50)
Button ($9.90)
Hero ($91.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $2.50, Button folds.

Flop: ($7) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $41.4</font>, Hero????

[ticks]

Call extremely fast and confidently.

[RyanCMU]

I call.

[MegalomaniaMan]

lotta time its a flush draw type hand, i believe. i dont see two pair/ sets doing this much, but maybe that what they want me to think. naw, call.

[Dilznoofus]

I think it's a fold. Passive donks are not shoving one pair or a draw here. Even if it is a big draw then his range is mostly top two or a set with a big draw making probably a small percentage of it.

You'll be badly beaten most of the time and in a race the rest of the time.

Unless you think he thinks AK is the nuts here. That's the only thing that would get me to call.

edit: and he would probably raise AK preflop.

[Low_Card2]

u see a flush draw/straight draw alot here, i call

[1gotth3nuts]

ugh, this is a tough spot. I think that sometimes I am calling, and sometimes I am folding, depending on the player's tendencies.

If you have seen the player play a set a certain way, then it would be easier to make your decision.

I don't think he has 33 here, cause i kinda doubt he woulda called a 6x bb raise w/ 3-3, but obviously we can be afraid of 10-10. Or this could be a hugely overbet flush draw, or possibly JQhh.

Personally i'd call here without many reads, but its definately a hand that i call 50% of the time and fold 50% of the time.

[Dilznoofus]

[ QUOTE ]
lotta time its a flush draw type hand, i believe. i dont see two pair/ sets doing this much, but maybe that what they want me to think. naw, call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see donkish players do this kind of thing with monsters a lot. Most recently yesterday:

STAGE #537636882: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $0.50 - 2007-01-06 23:22:07 (ET)
Table: HILDRETH LN (Real Money) Seat #1 is the dealer
Seat 1 - DILZNOOFUS ($100.55 in chips)
Seat 2 - DOUBLEDOWN86 ($96.50 in chips)
Seat 3 - FOOTRITE ($64.14 in chips)
Seat 4 - BOBDOG69 ($43.04 in chips)
Seat 5 - STINGER98 ($18.50 in chips)
Seat 6 - RAIN_FOREST ($114.90 in chips)
DOUBLEDOWN86 - Posts small blind $0.25
FOOTRITE - Posts big blind $0.50
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to DILZNOOFUS [8h 5h]
BOBDOG69 - Calls $0.50
STINGER98 - Folds
RAIN_FOREST - Folds
DILZNOOFUS - Raises $2 to $2
DOUBLEDOWN86 - Calls $1.75
FOOTRITE - Folds
BOBDOG69 - Calls $1.50
*** FLOP *** [Jd 8d 8s]
DOUBLEDOWN86 - Checks
BOBDOG69 - All-In $41.04
DILZNOOFUS - Calls $41.04
DOUBLEDOWN86 - Folds
*** TURN *** [Jd 8d 8s] [10h]
*** RIVER *** [Jd 8d 8s 10h] [Kd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DILZNOOFUS - Shows [8h 5h] (Three of a kind, eights)
BOBDOG69 - Shows [10c 8c] (Full house, eights full of tens)
BOBDOG69 Collects $85.58 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($88.58) | Rake ($3)
Board [Jd 8d 8s 10h Kd]
Seat 1: DILZNOOFUS (dealer) HI:lost with Three of a kind, eights [8h 5h - B:8s,P:8h,B:8d,B:Kd,B:Jd]
Seat 2: DOUBLEDOWN86 (small blind) Folded on the FLOP
Seat 3: FOOTRITE (big blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: BOBDOG69 won Total ($85.58) All-In HI$85.58) with Full house, eights full of tens [10c 8c - B:8s,B:8d,P:8c,B:10h,P:10c]
Seat 5: STINGER98 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: RAIN_FOREST Folded on the POCKET CARDS

[Shoot59]

RESULTS in white:



<font color="white">Hero Calls, turn and river are blanks, and villain shows 33 for a set. I cant believe he'd play a set this way, but maybe he thought I'd stack off with ak/aa </font>

[aces_full]

I would say you are behind here no more than 50% of the time. In my experience most donks at this level have no concept of protecting a vulnerable but made hand. Sets and two pair here will usually min-raise the flop in hopes of being tricky and roping you into putting more money in, or they will simply call the flop and wait until the turn to raise you. I call this in a heartbeat. It's when they start raising you on the turn that you need to be worried.