River Plan? 00P AA 50NL, Flush hits river

[Kasane]

I hate this spot. Villain is fairly typical loose passive, but has sparks of aggression. He plays it like a flush draw -- but by river both Ah and Kh are out (main reason this hand is interesting, I think.)

River is a clear bet/fold?... or is check/call better?


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.5</font>, CO calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($11.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $8</font>, CO calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($27.25, 2 players)
Hero ...

[pineapple888]

Actually, he plays it like a set. In any case, you have only a bluff catcher at this point. So check/fold cause if he is passive he ain't bluffing because your two-barrel AK just hit.

[biblo22]

For a loose passive player this could be the line of a set or a flush i think, why do you think its the line of a set pineapple?

didnt see that the turn paired the board, so by set do you mean he's now full? or got trips?

Back to OPs question i dont think that turn is very good for you, especially against a passive player, i think check/call a small bet(if he's full i don't think he's gonna bet you out of the pot on the turn if he's a donk he might do some sort of weak looking min bet thing, then pot the river (trying to represent a last chance bluff). If he makes a big bet on the turn probs just give it up, i think the pair is more of an immediate concern that the 3rd flush card.

Doubt a 10 is going to bet for value when the over card and 3rd flush card hit, so hope for a cheap showdown.

[Kasane]

This is never a set. A set would raise the turn, if not the flop. No set ever slow plays two streets on a two-tone board.

OK, well, it could possible be a set on the turn (now a boat). But most sets raise the flop. Still TT is all I could really see.

[keikiwai]

probably weak bet river, easy fold to raise (obv. you don't want to take this line vs. an agg. or good villain, since your line is pretty transparent, but vs. a predictable passive, it's fine)

this is going to be an 8 more often than a F or boat, but there's no way you get villain to fold.... but from a passive it could also be a T or any other piece or pp

you don't want to check because you still have a tiny bit of value vs. a passive player... but it's tiny and ez fold to raise

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
This is never a set. A set would raise the turn, if not the flop. No set ever slow plays two streets on a two-tone board.

OK, well, it could possible be a set on the turn (now a boat). But most sets raise the flop. Still TT is all I could really see.

[/ QUOTE ]

You said Villain was loose passive, for him to check a set once is no big deal, and as you noticed he would have filled up on the turn. Anyhow, the point is that his reasonable holdings all got there by the river so all you have is a bluff catcher.

[Kasane]

If he hit the bare 8 on the turn for trips, I think we'll see him raise. I think we can exclude trips, no? On the turn, I was thinking bare T w/biggish kicker (AT, KT...) that really should be folding, or the flush draw. I have the Ah, so that takes a lot of the passive flushes out of there (Ahxh, and KQh, KJh, etc are gone by river...). The boat usually min-raises here, too. Usually.

I'm pretty uber-lag PF, uber taggy post (which doesn't get noticed much.) If this makes any difference. It did to my decision, but I'm still questioning it.

[RStMartin]

dude hit his flush.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
If he hit the bare 8 on the turn for trips, I think we'll see him raise. I think we can exclude trips, no? On the turn, I was thinking bare T w/biggish kicker (AT, KT...) that really should be folding, or the flush draw. I have the Ah, so that takes a lot of the passive flushes out of there (Ahxh, and KQh, KJh, etc are gone by river...). The boat usually min-raises here, too. Usually.

I'm pretty uber-lag PF, uber taggy post (which doesn't get noticed much.) If this makes any difference. It did to my decision, but I'm still questioning it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So... what's your question again? If you really expect him to be in there with a pair of tens AND to call a third bet with it on such an ugly board for him, go ahead and bet/fold. Otherwise there's no point in betting because only better hands will call, and I seriously doubt he's gonna bluff if you check, so there's no reason to make a blocking bet.

[Low_Card2]

i bet $10 and fold if raised