How many outs do we have ?

Perhan · #1 01-06-2007, 05:36 AM

too many players for the poor AJo.

Do we put a villan on two pair, set, streight, draw?
What would most of you do in this spot. As you will see I folded. Mostly because of the large field and not beeing able to play AJo with confidence [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

Its funny because I just started reading SSHE by Miller on page where he and Sklansky are teaching about this things.

How many outs do you see here ?

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, CO folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

nickg1532 · #2 01-06-2007, 05:48 AM

uh, i think we still have the best hand more often than you are giving credit for. i wouldn't fold TP good kicker to this donk in a big pot

Perhan · #3 01-06-2007, 05:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
uh, i think we still have the best hand more often than you are giving credit for. i wouldn't fold TP good kicker to this donk in a big pot

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear you. I just didn't feel to good about my 4-5 outs here.
I know there are some hard arguments coming up but I just want to learn this game so hit me hard.

nickg1532 · #4 01-06-2007, 06:03 AM

well, you're almost getting odds to counterfeit two pair. you often have the best hand. i wouldn't fold and would strongly consider raising.

since you're in the process of reading SSHE (which is a good thing), you may have noticed a theme about the book: don't fold good hands in big pots (especially against unknown small stakes players, who you can assume are, as a default, retarded). you have to be pretty sure you're beat here to fold, and i just don't see what it is about his c/c donk turn line that would make you think this. he could easily have a weaker ace or worse here, imo.

inferno · #5 01-06-2007, 08:09 AM

you dont need outs if yo uhave the best hand call this down fosho

Oink · #6 01-06-2007, 09:35 AM

UGH thats a bad fold.

You are ahead often enough and if not, you are likely to have as much as 10 outs.

Bullitos · #7 01-06-2007, 09:38 AM

Just call down, raising would be too much, folding is horrible.

mvoss · #8 01-06-2007, 11:40 AM

This looks like a bad fold to me. You'll be ahead here pretty often and when you're not you have outs to beat 2 pair. I call down.

bobhalford · #9 01-06-2007, 12:03 PM

It certainly doesn't look good when the BB donks the turn into 4 players including the pf raiser. The BB knows that you may very well have AA/AK and could raise his bet.

But why would he donk the turn with 35? Perhaps it's the 35d. But why donk any two pair hand for that matter? He shouldn't be afraid for it to get checked through with 3 players left to act. With an ace on the flop, he should expect a bet from you. So one reason he could be betting is that you might raise and he can 3bet.

Another explanation is that he's on a flush draw and thinks he can semibluff the turn and fold everyone out. That's doubtful though, since hero bet the flop and was called in 4 spots. If they are calling this flop, they are calling the turn. So that must mean that BB has a terrifyingly strong hand. It's like he's fishing for someone to raise him. If not the pf raiser, maybe one of the other 3 players left to act.

So I think I don't mind the fold actually. I could see calling down (which is probably what I would do), but folding has some merit. If you call the turn you will be getting something like 11-1 on the river, which you will have to call as well. You won't be able to raise the river when you trip or hit two pair (unless willing to fold to a raise) since BB's line is so strong.

I kinda wish I could call the turn and fold the river here. But I think 10% of the time it's just the BB being a donkey with a flush draw or something. He may even check the river when he misses, allowing you to showdown for free.

Also worthy of mention is that UTG has called the BB's bet on the turn, so he's got some equity in the pot too, further arguing for a fold.

So I'm kinda undecided, but I see enough wacko stuff online that I would call down. I do think that the OP kinda has the right idea for folding. I think though at this limit, calling down may be better. If this was 15/30, folding I think would be a more viable play.

stonescar · #10 01-06-2007, 12:33 PM

Bob, I think your analysis is spot on if this had been against decent players. However this is 0.5/1, and just look at their preflop play. I see now this is also your conclusion. I need to read the whole post before I reply...