50nl: AA overpair in rr pot

Adelson · #1 01-05-2007, 04:00 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($29.95)
Button ($65.40)
SB ($87.70)
Hero ($50)
UTG ($104.20)
MP ($79.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $1.5, 3 folds, SB calls $1.25, Hero raises to $6, UTG calls $4.50, SB calls $4.50.

Flop: ($18) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12.75, UTG raises to $98.2, SB folds, Hero calls $31.25 (All-In).

UTG was 31/21/1.50 through ~25 hands. Call or fold to the allin?

holyfield5 · #2 01-05-2007, 04:15 PM

I play it the same, but im no expert with AA/KK i get stacked so much off garbage just like this.

comments plz

Javanewt · #3 01-05-2007, 05:01 PM

I played my KK the same way in a casino 1/2NL game. AA made a smart fold. I could have tried to slowplay, but board was drawy and two players were behind me. I hope he was bluffing or your A hit.

Javanewt · #4 01-05-2007, 05:04 PM

Added: I think any other player at the table but this guy would have called my AI. Tough to give up AA. If you had planned to go AI with it anyway, what else can you do?

Imrahil · #5 01-05-2007, 05:47 PM

This could either be AK, JJ and maybe 88. I'd call and hope it's AK.

op3th · #6 01-05-2007, 05:48 PM

$19 invested and $31 behind...looks like JJ or AK to me. So go with your gut.

aces_full · #7 01-05-2007, 05:49 PM

This is a tough one 25 hands does not a read make. His 21% PFR means he's raised like four times in four orbits. Maybe he's just had a run of good cards, I dunno. Point is, PT stats are pretty meaningless. Only hand I can see you ahead of here is a grossly overplayed AK. Given the action, I think he's trying to tell you that your AA is no good here. I put him on (most likely to least likely): JJ,88,KJ,KK. Not I put KK last since at this level I think he would 4-bet/push with KK (or the other AA-it has happened to me a few times). Folding this might seem weak, but I can't see you being ahead, and even on the off chance villain is donking it off with AK, if he goes this crazy with only a pair, you will certainly find a better spot to stack him.

Well the pot is laying you 1.984:1 on your call. Assuming villains hand range is AA,KK,JJ,88,KJ,and AK and he's equally likely to push any of these hands, you will win here about 35% of the time, and be tied 2% of the time, making your total pot equity ~37%. The real question is though would this villain overplay AK like this? I would think that your actual pot equity here is no greater than 33%, but still, given the pot odds, it's very close. The more I think about it, I lean toward a call. I remember reading in one of the Sklansky books that if a decision is very close between calling and folding you should probably just go ahead and call.