I River TPTK -- Now What?

[colgin]

Poker Stars $3/6 (6 max). 6 players.

Villain is one of the donks making the table good. He is about 55/12 with a high WTSD. Will take any draw to river and will call down with any piece of the board or made hand. He is fairly passive post-flop, but not ultra-passive.

Villain is BB. Two limpers to me and I raise AQo OTB. Villain calls and limper s call.

Flop: T-8-8 (suits unimportant).

Checked to me, I bet and all call.

Turn: T-8-8-(2).

Turn is checked through.

River: T-8-8-2-(A).

Villain (BB) bets, three folds, I raise, villain three-towns and I . . .

All comments appreciated.

[danzasmack]

This guy does not know how to play poker well so I wouldn't raise here if I wasn't going to call a 3-bet from him.

[jba]

do you have AQ or AK?

I guess you call but I'm not sure I'd raise in the first place with AQ.

[NL__Fool]

I just call the river here 100% of the time because the 3-bet puts is in a really tough spot.

A player like this doesnt know how to play poker like someone already mentioned.

Fish can not hand read and all they look at is what they have. He may think his naked A or even his A2 is huge here because everyone knows A2 makes 2 pair even when the 2's are counterfit.

There is alos the possibility he may hold an 8

You never know what is going thru the mid of a fish

[justkevin]

*grunch*

I call. I don't think he'd 3-bet with only an Ace, but given the pot size I'm not folding for 1BB on a pot this size.

This looks like he may have slow played the flop intending to c-r the turn. When you sabotaged his plans by checking the turn, he bet out the river.

Other streets look good.

[stonescar]

It might be an 8 that missed a turn check-raise, but it might also be a worse ace. Basically I can't trust villain enough to raise/fold. That's why I think I like a call on this river.

[TomBrooks]

Don't raise the river. Villain donks the ace hoping you'll raise, to make sure you won't check it through or as a bluff. He knows you preflop raised so he can beat any ace or he plans to fold his bluff if you raise. Just call in this situation. Since you mistakenly raised, fold to the 3B unless he's a aggrodonkey-fool, which your read does not seem to indicate.

=================
Unless I'm a fool, in the hand below I know Villain very often has a pair of aces. I don't donk this river with a hand that can't beat at least that unless I intend to fold to a raise. This hand was not good enough to three bet, but you can see why you shouldn't raise with one pair to a donk.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

[akvsaq]

I would be greedy and have raised the river but you guys made me think that I'm making a mistake vs this type of opponent who might 3B a weak Ace for instance, now I'm thinking just calling might be correct.
Also, doesn't anybody think taking the free card on the flop is good on this board? TT8 seems like a flop a lot of people will be sticking around. Unless you had a read that they are so passive that if you bet the flop they will automatically check the turn.

That said, I want to ask you guys a somewhat related question.

Say you have a very strong hand, say a set, and bet, bet, but once you come to the river the 4th flush gets there. Unless I KNOW the guy well that he wouldn't bluff-raise, I'm thinking check/call is the safer play in today's 6m usually very aggressive games. When looking at just stats, I see passive fishy players make these bluff-raises fairly often. Also, in today's games, a lot more players seem to be stupid enough to auto bet that river. What are your thoughts on this? I use to bet/fold the river but I've seen lots of fishy bluff-raises in these types of scenerios.
If I were in position and he checked to me and would have somewhat of a tough time deciding if he is bluff-check raising, I'll use the size of the pot to make a decision.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't raise the river. Villain donks the ace hoping you'll raise, to make sure you won't check it through or as a bluff. He knows you preflop raised so he can beat any ace or he plans to fold his bluff if you raise. Just call in this situation. Since you mistakenly raised, fold to the 3B unless he's a aggrodonkey-fool, which your read does not seem to indicate.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you are correct that a river donk here means villain can beat TP (or is bluffing), then a raise is a huge mistake and calling a three-bet a total disaster. Upon reflection I think that raising if a mistake is a small one, but that calling a three-bet is likely the big mistake against this player.


You assume that villain can beat top pair when he donks. Well, given this bad villain (and who might be slightly more frisky as the result of running good at this table), I thought it reasonable that villain might donk any Ace. If this assumption is wrong, per your thesis, then a raise is terrible. However, even assuming I am correct, there may not be enough hands that I am beating for me to offer 2:1 odds if I feel compelled to call. (By the way, my assumption is that if villain does bet a worse hand such as Ax here (but not a comlelte bluff), then he will call my raise and I am quite confident that villain is never folding anymade hand here).

Let's assume the follwoing ranges for villain:

Hands beating me (AA, AK, AT, TT, T8, 98, 88, 87, 86, 22) = 52 combos.

Hands I am beating (AJ, A9, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2) = 62 combos.

IF villain will bet all these, then raising is slightly better IF I can safely fold to a three-bet and IF villain will always call a riase wioth worse hands. Assuming all that, the raise0fokld line gets me an additional 0.10 BB (approximately) and that slight value is hanging on a lot of "IF"'s. So, given all that and that getting three-bet puts me in a bad spot I think a cal is in order. If there was a much wider range of hands that I am beating that he will bet-call with then a raise might be justified even if I mayhave to face a difficult decision when three-bet, but here thatis not the case.

While I now don't like my raise, I don't necessarily think it is a huge mistake. However, I called and I think that is(regardless of results) bad. I can debate TB's position that the river donk by the semi-passive player means that I am likely beat (or that he is bluffing) but I think the three-bet means I am toast. My rationalizatin for calling was pot big + my hand looks good (Aces up with strong kicker) + since villain checked flop and turn does he reallhave those hands that are beating me, but the reality is I think this was tilt from running really bad last night.

Anyway, villain had 86o and MHING.

[VickreyAuction]

Tom, why didn't you checkraise the river? Barring that, why didn't you fold the turn?