B&M $40 Mega Satelite early hand

[BlueEcho]

This is very early on in a quick structure. Blinds are 100/200 and starting chips 5500.

It's really early to have an image but I haven't done anything crazy or stupid yet. I bet a flop that came low from the BB and took it down. The only other hand I've played was against villian who limp/called my 4x raise and folded to a c-bet.

Villian is a bit loose. He has chased a flush draw that he connected on and bet out pot sized after a checked flop to take it down. He limps alot, but i saw him limp/fold to a huge raise as well. He really hasn't done anything special either, but he has yet to reraise anything.

Hero: 6300 chips
Villian: 6700ish chips

I'm UTG and have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and make a 3x raise to 600. Villian checks cards and quickly makes it 1200 from MP. It's folded back to me.

Now here is my question. I know that in a quick structure you have to let it fly and hope for the best but this situation really smelled like a big pair. Both in actions and demeanor I had a pretty good read I felt. But this pot is laying me 3.5 to 1 to call, and since an A or K comes 1/3 of the time is calling the right play?

If I miss I can c/f for a minimum loss. If I hit well then I take my chances on which big pair he had becuase any raise mostly commits me.

Any thoughts?

[Jiggymike]

You can't fold, sorry. You can either call and see a flop with your odds, reraise and see what he does (most players will only push AA-QQ and maybe AK at this point, if you want to fold to that go ahead) or just push and hope he doesn't have aces. I would probably call and bet out if I hit flop or reraise/fold to push.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't fold, sorry. You can either call and see a flop with your odds, reraise and see what he does (most players will only push AA-QQ and maybe AK at this point, if you want to fold to that go ahead) or just push and hope he doesn't have aces. I would probably call and bet out if I hit flop or reraise/fold to push.

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Just wanted to say that the part in bold is the second worst advice I have ever read on this forum

[Jiggymike]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can't fold, sorry. You can either call and see a flop with your odds, reraise and see what he does (most players will only push AA-QQ and maybe AK at this point, if you want to fold to that go ahead) or just push and hope he doesn't have aces. I would probably call and bet out if I hit flop or reraise/fold to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just wanted to say that the part in bold is the second worst advice I have ever read on this forum

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Is it? sorry, I have just played my first few live tournaments in the past few weeks and people seem to either 1) raise and reraise pretty much only with AA, KK, and QQ, maybe AK or 2) go all in with hands like KJo when they are moderately short even though the action has been something like limp/raise/reraise ahead of them. I have my best success at the 90person MTTs on FT which are much slower moving than the live tourneys I have played so I am giving advice with a very skewed view. Also I don't think I would ever make the play I suggested now that I look at it but theoretically I was thinking that most players will shove their premium hands here but just call with weaker holdings.

[Cornell Fiji]

AKo has 39% equity against a range of QQ+/AK.

If he reraised preflop he would make it at least 3000 to go if he wanted any fold equity.

Now the villain 4 bets over him with his super tight range of QQ+/AK.

The hero will have to call 3300 to win 12,900 chips and He has 39% equity to win the pot but you suggested a fold

The hero would have odds to call if he KNEW that the villain had pocket kings!

[BlueEcho]

I realize folding is out of the question. Stack sizes makes raising nearly impossible so this is really a push or call question.

[Jiggymike]

[ QUOTE ]
AKo has 39% equity against a range of QQ+/AK.

If he reraised preflop he would make it at least 3000 to go if he wanted any fold equity.

Now the villain 4 bets over him with his super tight range of QQ+/AK.

The hero will have to call 3300 to win 12,900 chips and He has 39% equity to win the pot but you suggested a fold

The hero would have odds to call if he KNEW that the villain had pocket kings!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I don't even know why I am justifying this, it was awful advice from any standpoint and a play I would never use. At least you showed how wrong it was by analysis.

Edit: Now that we've showed I'm an idiot, what is right play? I like a call here if my read is that Villian is more likely to have a big pair but a push can't be all that bad either in this kind of quick tourney.