KK vs. DJ Sensei: Live $5/$10

[Big_Jim]

DJ and I have not tangled whatsoever so far this session, and we don't really have much history.

Table has been pretty passive, with very little re-raising PF. The only re-raising that has occurred has been from either DJ or myself, but neither of us have been getting out of line.

I've been card dead, so I've been playing pretty tight.

I have $2K, DJ covers by a lot.

Folds to CO who raises to $40. I re-raise to $140 OTB, as I have done to this particular player, in this exact spot probably twice, already. SB folds to DJ in the BB who 4-towns $400 (we have no 4-bet history whatsoever). CO folds, I call.

Flop ($840) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
DJ asks me how much I'm playing, and I tell him I have $1600 left. He thinks for a few seconds, opens up his wad of bills, and counts out $500. Hero...?

How does the board texture affect your decision?

[Surf]

Jim,

This would depend heavily on what he thinks of your pf call. He's showing serious strength with his cold-4bet, and I imagine he'd expect you to reraise him PF if you thought he was FOS, so your call is pretty damn strong, and basically says "I have QQ+."

Now he bets the J9x flop anyway, for ~3/5ths pot or so? This would lead one to believe that either A) he thinks he's ahead of your range, which would mean he has KK/AA/JJ...or it means he's using his position against you and the fact that you are 200bbs deep to mean that you cannot win this pot unless you have a set pretty much.

So, after thinking about it for a bit i think the flop is a raise or a fold. DJ is savvy enough to recognize what a flop call means, and so things are going to get really expensive whether he's bluffing or has you beat. Raising would be best if he'll lay down AA(I think you're deep enough for this, no?) because I think he's also running a move here some decent %.

Also, did you give any thought to a pf reraise? why or why not? This is pure curiosity, i'm not advocating one.

Surf

Edit: it might be a pretty slick spot to c-c the flop intending to c-c a push on the turn, knowing that he'll think you will have to lay down your mediocre overpair. You'd have to be pretty confident in that level of thinking, though. edit edit: that's stupid, he's not bluffing enough to make that worthwhile.

[True]

fold pf, fold flop

[PartyGirlUK]

Surf, wtf - you think he is folding AA after putting 20% of his stack in pf?

Maybe, maybe on a KQJ board he would, but on J9x? LOL - he is only behind 1 hand (since 99 and 22 are folding pre), and BJ might even fold JJ pre, so AA is never ever ever folding here. You can choose my avatar for all of 2007 if BJ raised and Sensei folded Aces.

[CamelZoo]

Surf,

I don't think villain folds AA to a flop push


Big Jim,

I push flop but don't feel great about it. I'm not at all familiar with villain in the hand, but board texture although not ideal is not scary enough to cause me to fold. QQ (and worse obv) is not putting another cent in if you call, and I would not be surprised to see KK here. Your line may even have villain contemplating a fold by the same hand.

[Gildwulf]

I really doubt he's betting 3/5 of the pot here with QQ. After your call of a four-bet preflop you are saying you have QQ-AA, AK so I also doubt he is betting this sensibly with AK. It's hard to put him on less than AA or JJ here. Given his post-flop action I can't see your Kings being good here, like, ever against a solid thinking player.

I don't like raising here unless you think he is willing to fold AA in this huge a pot. Given the probability of his hand range weighing heavily towards JJ or AA given his post-flop action, you should fold here.

[Big_Jim]

All: There is almost no chance whatsoever that he folds AA.

Pre-flop, I was thinking that he could easily have a fairly wide range here, and I think folding pre is pretty bad. CO was fairly weak, and I think that DJ views my range here as fairly wide, and he is not unfamiliar with the TWP move.

Post flop, I guess what this really comes down to is whether or not I think he would cbet here without the goods (KK+).

For the sake of discussion, If I DO think that he would cbet here often with a weak hand, how do you think I should proceed?

[dtan05]

if he thinks you cbet with a weak hand, then cbet with your strong hand.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
if he thinks you cbet with a weak hand, then cbet with your strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
wtf are you talking about?

[Big_Jim]

Surf, in response to your edit, I'm OTB.