Random thoughts on 25nl 6max (long)

[derosnec]

this is a post based on experience, not really theory. i've played over 100k hands at 25nl. pretty sad. i cashed out alot, etc (instead of building the roll). and i sucked for a while, more so than i do now, if u can imagine that

i'm not one of the huge winners at uNL, so this isn't supposed to be one of those gold fimbluwinter type of posts. just a regular guy talkin' bout what he's seen out yonder.

(your experience may differ)


1) tight players usually don't raise with overpairs or draws on the flop. i don't know why but they don't. i would say that almost everytime that i have been raised on the flop by one of these 16/5 types it has been with a set. once in a while they will raise the flop with an overpair if there is a flush draw(though not with less than QQ, and even QQ is iffy), but rarely do they try to protect their hands. i guess it's a pot control thing.

2) when a player bets min on the turn and then on the river, they almost always have second or third pair (sometimes a top pair with something like 2 kicker). but just because you have successfully put them on a hand that can't stand any heat does not mean that you have FE for a bluff (hence one of the reasons my roll is not big enough for 50nl). they will often call a big raise. i don't understand it and once almost had an aneurism trying to figure out their thought process. i blacked out and woke up the next morning surrounded by origamis of frogs with my handwriting on each one saying, "To Bobby, Get Well Soon, Derosnec"

3) when the pfr slows down on the turn and checks river, he or she has ace high here alot or some crap pair (like pairing their 2 kicker). they will bet K high or worse hands to get you to fold. i rarely see K high or worse from a pfr check the river. in other words, they will check when they have showdown value. i remember a few weeks ago when it hit me. i was thinking, "wait a minute. the pfrs do check the river a decent amout of the time but i can't remember the last time any of them showed down a hand less than ace high. therefore i'm probably getting bluffed on the river a signficant % of time by worse hands." however, the derosnec theorem (which i just made up right now; there are about 2,700 derosnec theorems) states that whenever you try to catch their river bluffs, they will have a made hand.

4) turn raises. they have it. flop raises usually means they have it, but turn raises really really really means they have it.

5) when they raise me on a K high dry flop when i am the pfr. i have rarely ever won these, even with AK. it should be obvious why if you think about it (jesus, i'm starting to sound like DS)

6) limpers are ridicuously easy to fold with a pf raise with any two.

7) restealing: this has become a much bigger part of my game. the thing about restealing is that i am not trying to defend my sb/bb. what do i care about my bb. i can't even buy a cup of coffee with 25 cents. instead i am trying to steal $1 (the button's raise). it works alot. what works better though (because there is less perception by the pfr that i am restealing and being tricky) is reraising someone when you are in late position. then the pfr gives you much more credit for a hand and lets it go a big % of the time (assuming they are not a donk and not a super nit with 10/2.3 stats).

8) nits and donks call pf raises with AK and QQ (and worse). it is rare that they will reraise me with these hands. this has been a problem because i have lost a decent amount of money to AK hands when I raise with AQ/AJ and flop an ace. i never think to put my opponent on AK.

10) there are way more nits than there are TAGs (i define TAG as having stats of at least 19/10). i have really had to learn how to play against the nits, which means playing alot of small pots. if they raise me postflop, i can't get into a game of chicken with them because they have it every time. they don't bluff. i don't think i've ever caught one of them bluffing.

11) image is overrated when playing against donks. day after day i see the nittiest of nits (guys with stats like 12/5/3 stats) getting paid off by their opponents.

12) (this one is probably a little more controversial and can cost you alot of $$ if not careful)

you can make alot of money playing loose

each of my tables usually has a couple of terrible donks.

what ends up happening is i get the donks' stacks and i usually have a 300bb+ stack at 3 or 4 of my tables at any given time (i play 8 to 9 tables). i rarely see any of the tight players at my tables with stacks greater than 150-200bbs. most are hovering at 100bbs hour after hour

so, this is what i do. i raise alot pf. roughly 22-28% of my hands (less if the donks are the ones raising alot). so, this folds out the tight players a great % of the time (they never adjust. you can raise the nits for 10 hours straight and they will not loosen up. serious).

so, i spend most of my time at the tables trying to play in pots with the donks and isolate them so that the tight players don't get a piece.

now, here is the interesting thing. remember in #11 when i said image is overrated? well, it is if you are tight. they don't notice that. but, if you raise alot pf, they do notice. they are usually only playing one table and will steam if you keep raising them. i have been called many names in the chat box by these players because of my raising. go figure.

if the donks are the ones raising pf, i call with alot of stuff. i am looking to primarily to hit something better than one pair. i have won huge pots with two pairs. yesterday alone, i won at 350bb pot with Q8s (heads up against another deep stack donk), a 400+bb pot with T2 (multiway against two donks), a 400+bb pot with J8 (heads up deepstacked against donk), and one more hand i can't remember because i am at work.

and that's just the two pairs with junky hands.

so, my point, is that implied odds are very high at 25nl if you can get a donk or two in a hand with you. they are so high, that you don't need a traditional implied odds hands (like a pp) to win mucho dinero.

13) somewhat related to #12: people play terribly deepstacked. if you can build a stack, there is a lotta goodies for your winrate because your deepstacked opponent (should there be one) likely won't adjust to stack sizes and will dump 250bbs with a pair of aces with 8 kicker (as happened between me and another guy a few days ago).

14) people play awful in reraised pots. i haven't quite worked out what is the correct way to play in reraised pots, but i do know that my opponents are way too aggro in them (potting the flop, etc.)

15) people with pets avatars are the worst players. however, do not lump all pet icons into one group. people with pictures of their cat (especially if it is one of those black halloween cats) play better than people with pics of their dogs. among the dog owners, the people with pics of lazy dogs (like bulldogs and bassets) play much worse than those with pics of labs and retrievers. baby picture avatars are 2nd worst. and if they have a pic of themselves fishing or on vacation (especially if it's an older man), you are going to be rich. beware of anyone with an avatar of a hot model or some anime/ninja stuff: they tend to be decent.

[avfletch]

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15) people with pets avatars are the worst players. however, do not lump all pet icons into one group. people with pictures of their cat (especially if it is one of those black halloween cats) play better than people with pics of their dogs. among the dog owners, the people with pics of lazy dogs (like bulldogs and bassets) play much worse than those with pics of labs and retrievers. baby picture avatars are 2nd worst. and if they have a pic of themselves fishing or on vacation (especially if it's an older man), you are going to be rich. beware of anyone with an avatar of a hot model or some anime/ninja stuff: they tend to be decent.

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Nice post all round but this bit was awesome [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Antinome]

I have an avatar of an cartoon dog on Stars. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] (Sam from the old LucasArts game Sam and Max Hit the Road) Part donk, part decent. That's about right.

This is an awesome post. This is like the less-theoretical cousin of Pokey's recent tl;dr manifesto.

[Sir Winalot]

Great stuff derosnec! #15 was lol [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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a 400+bb pot with T2 (multiway against two donks),

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soooooo doyle brunson... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[dankus]

Most of this is so true in my short time playing again so far it's unbelievable.

[LearningCurve]

It's always nice to have the benefit of someone else's experience, particularly when it literally makes you lol! Thanks for taking the time to share.

[jdefoe]

to add: Raise 99% of the pots on the button and the office (the CO)...they either fold the blinds or call oop and fold to c-bets.

[silly_monkey]

Nice post!

I'm only about 20k hands into my NL career (coming from limit) and playing NL$50.

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2) when a player bets min on the turn and then on the river, they almost always have second or third pair (sometimes a top pair with something like 2 kicker). but just because you have successfully put them on a hand that can't stand any heat does not mean that you have FE for a bluff (hence one of the reasons my roll is not big enough for 50nl). they will often call a big raise. i don't understand it and once almost had an aneurism trying to figure out their thought process. i blacked out and woke up the next morning surrounded by origamis of frogs with my handwriting on each one saying, "To Bobby, Get Well Soon, Derosnec"


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Sigh...

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6) limpers are ridicuously easy to fold with a pf raise with any two.

7) restealing: this has become a much bigger part of my game. the thing about restealing is that i am not trying to defend my sb/bb. what do i care about my bb. i can't even buy a cup of coffee with 25 cents. instead i am trying to steal $1 (the button's raise). it works alot. what works better though (because there is less perception by the pfr that i am restealing and being tricky) is reraising someone when you are in late position. then the pfr gives you much more credit for a hand and lets it go a big % of the time (assuming they are not a donk and not a super nit with 10/2.3 stats).


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Both of these are ++++++EV at micros for me so far.

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8) nits and donks call pf raises with AK and QQ (and worse). it is rare that they will reraise me with these hands. this has been a problem because i have lost a decent amount of money to AK hands when I raise with AQ/AJ and flop an ace. i never think to put my opponent on AK.


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I usually play for pot control with these types of hands. OOP this is obv harder. Nice thing is the donks usually don't be too big.

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13) somewhat related to #12: people play terribly deepstacked. if you can build a stack, there is a lotta goodies for your winrate because your deepstacked opponent (should there be one) likely won't adjust to stack sizes and will dump 250bbs with a pair of aces with 8 kicker (as happened between me and another guy a few days ago).


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So true! I'm playing at deepstack tables, which 200 BB max buyin. Usually the donks buy-in for 50-100, but sometimes they buy-in for more or double up a few times. Playing in big pots with them is so +++++EV. Most donks at least have some idea of what cards are good/bad pre-flop, even if they don't use that knowledge, but donks, some nits, and bad lags don't have a clue how to play post flop. You have such a HUGE advantage here as a good player.

[corsakh]

Nice read. We don't have avatars at Party.

[keikiwai]

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Nice read. We don't have avatars at Party.

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i'd be interested in hearing FTP avatar theories