Variance

jimster · #1 01-04-2007, 02:39 AM

Just wondering what you guys would say is a normal variance for low/medium stakes no-limit HE?

Is losing 10-20 BI a normal variance?

flytrap · #2 01-04-2007, 02:47 AM

I've never been one to study the variance formulas and such, but I'm pretty sure that kind of variance is not normal. Anything over 10 buyins would start to worry me.

iAmAddicted · #3 01-04-2007, 02:53 AM

10-20 Bi is past normal imo. anything over ten and one questions their ability as a palyer. Unless ur name is FGators, then after 80 BI you're still confident.

wave261 · #4 01-04-2007, 08:53 AM

I f you play in games where people push a lot of hands, variance is a lot bigger then passive games. I think when you play on party, 15 bi ds are common.

Wolfram · #5 01-04-2007, 10:43 AM

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If you play in games where people push a lot of hands, variance is a lot bigger then passive games. I think when you play on party, 15 bi ds are common.

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This just ain't true. It's very easy to beat maniac pushers and have a low variance. Getting all-in regularly as at least a 65/35 favorite has very little variance involved.

Given that the accepted minimum BR is 20 buyins, I think a 10 buyin downswing is a warning sign that you should move down and work on your game. 20 buyins either means you caught a horrible bad run or are playing to high for your skill level.

graarrg · #6 01-04-2007, 01:42 PM

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20 buyins either means you caught a horrible bad run or are playing to high for your skill level.

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right, but I think OP wants to know how likely such a bad run is even for a legit player. It's definitely possible, especially the lower your winrate.

SpecT · #7 01-04-2007, 01:45 PM

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20 buyins either means you caught a horrible bad run or are playing to high for your skill level.

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right, but I think OP wants to know how likely such a bad run is even for a legit player. It's definitely possible, especially the lower your winrate.

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I think if you had a 20BI downswing it's much more likely ur a losing player at that limit rather than variance

Miyogi · #8 01-04-2007, 01:59 PM

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Getting all-in regularly as at least a 65/35 favorite has very little variance involved.

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You should tell that to my AA and KK lately.

lsaw2 · #9 01-04-2007, 02:08 PM

"your" AA and KK are only 65% favourites??? Where you play?!?! I'll 7 bet ya with 22 :P Good bet [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Sciolist · #10 01-04-2007, 02:17 PM

It depends on the limit, but basically, no, it's not normal and something is wrong. It also depends on sample size. As (I think) Gigabet said - "One day, you will run worse than you can imagine".

I once lost 7 buyins in 100 hands, all to set over sets, flushes vs. flushes (or rivered fullhouses etc), or AA all in preflop. If it can happen once, it can happen twice, but I think we're looking a loooong way into the boundaries of the improbable to lose 15 buyins without playing poorly.