Omaha hi/lo Stars hand at 10/20-Bet/Fold River or Check/Call?

[grandgnu]

Notes on the two players I get involved with in this hand. UTG is 30 VPIP with around 50% W$SD.

CO is uber-donk with VPIP of 56% and W$SD of 38%

Should I continue with a bet on this river to rep the straight/full house, or just check-call because it's unlikely I'm getting anyone to fold but I might entice a bluff from the CO on the scary river card?

Poker Stars
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $198.50
HERO: $646
MP1: $276.50
CO: $202
Button: $273.50
SB: $358.50
BB: $552

Pre-flop: (7 players) HERO is UTG+1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, HERO calls, MP1 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5SB, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises</font>, CO calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5.5BB, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">HERO bets</font>, CO calls, UTG calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8.5BB, 3 players)
UTG checks, HERO checks, CO checks.

Results:
Final pot: 8.5BB

[Dire]

Definite fold on the flop especially in this tiny pot. You have top and bottom on a low draw board without any chance of taking the low. There's no cards you're going to like. High cards put straights and better two pairs, low cards make sure you're not getting more than half the pot.

[KneeCo]

Hate the flop raise, if you get action even an A on the turn isn't great.

Pretty much every card in the deck hurts on the turn and I can't see you picking it up on the flop hardly ever.

[TxRedMan]

the flop raise is fine.

whoever thinks you should have folded to the flop bet is nuts.

the best line on the river is a check/call against bad opponents and check/fold against good, tight ABC opponents.

i.e., folding this river &lt;10% of the time.

i dont like bet/folding, b/c i hate giving that image at an online table. live i can make that play, but I still hate it b/c I can get to showdown for the same price by check/calling.

betting this river doesn't seem to have any value at all, even against a bad player.

also, by checking you will somtimes get the 2-3-4-X hands and other whiffed low draws to bet the river hoping a hand like yours or less will fold, so check/calling gains you 1 bet, while raising in that spot will generally only mean you get called by a hand that beats you, almost always.

unless you're playing with pool777. in that case bet, raise, and cap.



-Tex

[Dire]

Can you elaborate on the hand range you're putting UTG on? In the best case he'll have some absolute crap like A35x in which case hero is [only] a 3:2 favorite. If he has something like 237J hero is even money - and in the worst case hero is absolutely dead. Of course this is all heads up too, once the third player comes along for a raise hero is screwed.

The flop raise seems like spewage.


Also, the above numbers were run with villain having rainbow hands. Add any backdoor flush draws and hero's equity continues to take an even bigger dump.

[grandgnu]

UTG's hand: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

CO's hand: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


Preflop that puts me at 35% equity, almost 36%

On the flop here's how it shapes up:

Me: 23% equity
UTG: 37% equity
CO: 40% equity

So I've definetely fallen behind. But I figured that the UTG player was on Ax and may have been counterfietted for his low. As such, I have the live 2 plus two pair, so I'm trying to get it headsup in position.

The CO, not knowing he's got 40% equity in the hand, makes a bad cold-call of 2 bets (in my opinion), in that all he's likely to make from this hand is half the pot. Granted, he doesn't know that the blinds are going to fold, so if everyone is coming along, then it's not a terrible call at all.

I am very unhappy to be sandwiched between both of these players going into the turn, but I am pleased the the UTG player didn't three-bet, that makes me feel as if I'm ahead and can take the pot away.

The turn changes things:

Me: 45% equity
UTG: 29% equity
CO: 25% equity

I figured at that point I had the best hand and the other two were chasing lows (since I expect an AT on the flop to come out re-raising my raise)

The river was awful for me in that I could have been run down at that point (I don't put anyone on the nut straight on the turn since there was no raise).

So I figure I'm not getting called by a hand that I have beat, and my two pair are counterfietted now. So I checked hoping the CO might try and bluff and I could pick him off, not realizing that the UTG player had also flopped two pair and had stuck around against my raise (i.e. calling station)

Anyway, I don't disagree that a flop fold is a bad idea. But I figured that I could raise and get heads-up with position against a player who was likely counterfietted and be an equity favorite (not knowing he actually had me in rough shape on the flop)

So he dediced to call down with his top and bottom pair, and I chose to get aggressive with mine and promote a marginal holding into a potential scoop or at least half the pot with some dead money from all the limpers.

Most of the time I dump hands like that, but I'm trying to become more comfortable with getting pots short-handed and upping my aggression.

I do agree that most turn cards I don't like. But I figured that my aggression would force the other players to reveal their likely holdings (i.e. if I'm up against the AT on the flop then I'm going to be three-bet and I can get away from my hand).

Since both players just cold-called I figured them for decent low draws, and with that not materializing on the turn, I wanted to charge them to try and hit their lows.

And on the river, since they whiffed they might think I can be pushed off by the scare card that paired the board, so I'm hoping the CO will toss another bet in there for me, so I intended to check-call.

[Dire]

I don't think it's really reasonable to put UTG on a counterfiet low when he donks into 4 players on that flop. Since he limped UTG, you've gotta figure he has an ace. But after he bets into 4 people, you've gotta put him on either two pair and/or ace + low draw. It's not like he's just c-betting a pf raise in a shorthanded pot.

I also think that the CO's cold call is not all that bad. Since he has two 3s, there's an extremely good chance that he's quartering you two on any low and he may induce the blinds to come along.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's really reasonable to put UTG on a counterfiet low when he donks into 4 players on that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at his stats, a little too loose and terrible win percentages at showdown.

Regardless, I think I suffered from fancy play syndrome on this one. No need to get fancy with bad players, just play relatively nut holdings and pound them with bets that they'll just call and call.

In this particular instance with these players it appears:

Fold &gt; Raise &gt; Call

UTG should've folded the flop when I raised him, since his hand can't really improve much either and he's in a three-way pot out of position against the other two players.

But, other players don't play as they should or as I would, thus I usually want him in there chasing in those spots.

I figured my raise would force my opponents to identify their hands while the betting rounds were cheap. If I can get up against someone chasing a low draw, I have potential to scoop them (and they likely aren't raising me without the made low just yet, so their calls are typically indicative of that type of holding)

I figured UTG for a solid low draw, didn't put him on the same two pair as I had. But once the turn hit I figure I'm still ahead based on the flop action.

Both of them appeared to be drawing at lows because I didn't get three-bet. As such, the 9 didn't help them and I might be able to push them out on this more expensive betting round, or at least charge them for trying to hit for half the pot.

That was my line of thinking anyway, wasn't too concerned in that spot about someone sitting on JQ (since the flop had 8T not 9T), although that would give them a double gutshot on the flop, so anythings possible I suppose.

But regardless of the flop and turn, if I could see my opponents hands I'm obviously betting the river, since the A8 guy is likely to fold.

I didn't want to go betting into the CO who's way too lose and could have easily hit the Ten, and who may try bluffing into the pot and I can pick up an extra bet.

So I figured by check/calling I avoiding potentially losing two bets on the river, and added the possibility of snagging an extra bet if he bluffed.

Had I stopped for a second to consider that UTG also probably had an Ace in his hand and I could be outkicked, I would have bet anyway, but I missed that and acted too quickly I suppose.

[Gotmilk]

[ QUOTE ]
Notes on the two players I get involved with in this hand. UTG is 30 VPIP with around 50% W$SD.

CO is uber-donk with VPIP of 56% and W$SD of 38%

Should I continue with a bet on this river to rep the straight/full house, or just check-call because it's unlikely I'm getting anyone to fold but I might entice a bluff from the CO on the scary river card?

Poker Stars
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $198.50
HERO: $646
MP1: $276.50
CO: $202
Button: $273.50
SB: $358.50
BB: $552

Pre-flop: (7 players) HERO is UTG+1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, HERO calls, MP1 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5SB, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises</font>, CO calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5.5BB, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">HERO bets</font>, CO calls, UTG calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8.5BB, 3 players)
UTG checks, HERO checks, CO checks.

Results:
Final pot: 8.5BB

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW my two options are check-calling or check-folding. I DOn't understand why check-folding is not an option when you don't have two pair.

[Fiasco]

[ QUOTE ]
betting this river doesn't seem to have any value at all, even against a bad player.

[/ QUOTE ]
I could definitely see an AJ or AQ folding to a river bet. Its a big pot, I say you have to go for it - winning the pot is more important than getting to showdown cheaply.