A river c/r bluff

[wuwei]

I tend to play a fairly straightforward TAG game, but I'm trying to find good spots to mix things up more. What about this spot? Villain was not very good, running 44/14/2.5 over 45 hands. It checked the river because it seemed to likely he'd call with some mediocre hand, but once he bet I considered how many hands he could have at this point that can stand a check raise.

Thoughts on the raise and the bet size? Can I get by with significantly less?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $214.50
UTG+1: $181.05
CO: $364.65
Button: $205.40
hero: $192.10
BB: $170.40

Pre-flop: (6 players) hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($6, 3 players)
hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($6, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $4</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($14, 2 players)
hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $9</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $50</font>

[MasterLJ]

Why?

If you're going to do it, make it $25-$30, anything over that is just wasted money.

Bluffing a tiny pot is pretty bad.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Bluffing a tiny pot is pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree with this statement, winning small pots is a significant part of our winrate. If the bluff is profitable, I'm not concerned about how small the pot is.

I do agree that the raise size is too much - I was going for a pot sized raise and did my math poorly on the fly. I can probably get by with less than pot, but I wanted it large enough to make a Q think hard about folding.

Regarding the question of why, what range do you put him on that checks the flop, calls the turn, and bets the river? What % of his range can call a river c/r?

[Mossberg]

I think the turn bet is bad and the river c/r is just uuugly. On the turn, why are you betting into this unraised pot (into 2 players!). On the river, you will have more success just firing again if you really want this pot. Once you check and he bets, putting in any more action is just pure spewery IMO.

Yes there are spots to bluff and take down relatively small pots. This is not an example.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the turn bet is bad and the river c/r is just uuugly. On the turn, why are you betting into this unraised pot (into 2 players!). On the river, you will have more success just firing again if you really want this pot. Once you check and he bets, putting in any more action is just pure spewery IMO.

Yes there are spots to bluff and take down relatively small pots. This is not an example.

[/ QUOTE ]
You realise he turned a fd? Betting this turn is fine, but I would be more inclned to do it with the nfd or at least an OC. Bluffing the river is not a good idea. Villain is loose, the river isn't a scare card and it needs to work about 70% to be profitable.

[Mossberg]

Yeah but what are we hoping to do betting our J high flush draw into 2 players, one of them being a 44/14 who from my experience will typically call you pretty light in a small pot like this. I just don't see what a bet is accomplishing here.

[MasterLJ]

Are you filing this under "he can know I'm bluffing but still can't call?"

Again, I hear what you are saying about profit is profit, but again your raise amount is silly. You can risk a lot less and get the same effect and also give yourself a better chance of success since it only needs to work 50% of the time if it's around $25-$30.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah but what are we hoping to do betting our J high flush draw into 2 players, one of them being a 44/14 who from my experience will typically call you pretty light in a small pot like this. I just don't see what a bet is accomplishing here.

[/ QUOTE ]
If the other player is loose too I don't like it. If he's unknown it's ok. Betting 4 into a 6 pot needs to succeed 40% of the time for an immediate profit, but we don't need an immediate profit because when called we probably have ~11 outs.

Edit: If they both fold 20% of the time and you win 10$ on average after hitting the flush it's about break even. I think both will fold more often than 20% of the time and some of the time (pretty often) a J will do.

[PBJaxx]

The turn bet is fine IMO. I take little pots down like this all the time. Like Royale said, as a pure bluff it only has to work 40% of the time, and we prob have at least 9 clean out.

Riv C/R is pretty ugly. I think villain has a queen or a 3 here quite often, and he will prob look you up with both. The worst part is the overbet. Make it $40 at the most, but $32 probably does the same thing as $50 here. He is either calling or he isn't. Me no likey.

[Mossberg]

Also, another barrel on the river will fold out 9's, maybe a weak pocket pair and also higher flush draws. Checking through allows him to take it down with those hands.

So should we typically c-bet our busted semi-bluff here, or do you guys just give up on this river as a standard play?