boxing question

[Doosh]

Howdy, quick and presumably stupid question on boxing wager. Looking at the Toney-Peter fight, Pinny has the following:

Toney by decision +191
Peter by decision +201
Draw +1656

Over 11.5 rounds -231

It seems to me (as someone who has never wagered on boxing) that the combination of fighters by decision and draw should be fairly close to the over. But it's not. Is there an outcome I'm missing, or is it that likely that something will happen in the second half of the 12th round that will keep it from going to a decision/draw?

[llabb]

Try doing the math yourself, or using arbcentral or scalpulator. The odds you listed for the 2 decisions and draw add up to -274. Taking the draw out of the equation yields -209.

[Glenn]

The part you are missing is that the difference between the over (-231) and the combination of the props (-274) is much smaller than it looks. -231 translates to 69.8% of outcomes while -274 translates to 73.3%. That's only a difference of 3.5%. Around 1% of that represents a KO in the last minute and a half, and the other part is mostly due the fact that the props simply pay worse odds.

[Doosh]

Thanks.

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
The part you are missing is that the difference between the over (-231) and the combination of the props (-274) is much smaller than it looks. -231 translates to 69.8% of outcomes while -274 translates to 73.3%. That's only a difference of 3.5%. Around 1% of that represents a KO in the last minute and a half, and the other part is mostly due the fact that the props simply pay worse odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the much larger portion, and often can account for almost the entire difference.

On books other than Pinny, the juice is usually much larger, and you could easily see an Over of -240 and a combination of decisions and draws that would be between -300 and -400, or possibly even worse, solely based on the juice they charge for props and single outcomes.