NL50 - AQ hits TP, faces heat

Wolfram · #1 01-01-2007, 11:40 PM

Villain is very aggro (43.4/21.7/5.00). He is not a calling station postflop.

Do you like my line?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($26.55)
Hero ($79.80)
BB ($46.50)
UTG ($28.65)
MP ($63.45)
CO ($30.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.5, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $3, BB raises to $9, CO folds, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($27) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $25, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $52

Edit: added a real title

dankus · #2 01-01-2007, 11:48 PM

I'd fold the flop.

I think at best you are hoping to be against AQ as well.

Shaddux · #3 01-01-2007, 11:53 PM

I probably fold to flop 3bet

Wolfram · #4 01-02-2007, 12:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I probably fold to flop 3bet

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? Way I see it he's offering me 3:1 on a call and his range is probably AT+, 2-pair, a set and combo flushdraw.

Granted, if he has a set I'm screwed but the other hands I have enough outs on to call IMO.

You don't think I have the odds to call?

Shaddux · #5 01-02-2007, 12:56 AM

Even though villain is ultra aggro, a flop 3bet signifies a lot of strength. Although we have decent odds, I'm not sure what outs help us at this point, and I can't see us being ahead here either.

Fallen00 · #6 01-02-2007, 01:03 AM

same, id fold to the 3bet.. you are most likely WB here.. you only have top pair with second kicker.. the flop 3bet tells you this: do you want to put your stack on this hand or not? id say no.. fold and wait for a better spot :P

_TKO_ · #7 01-02-2007, 01:08 AM

Is folding preflop bad here?

Shaddux · #8 01-02-2007, 01:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is folding preflop bad here?

[/ QUOTE ]
folding pf seems extremely nitty. I probably 3bet this.

Wolfram · #9 01-02-2007, 01:23 AM

Here's my equity based on that villain 3bets with any 2-pair, any set (except Aces which he would raise preflop), AT+ and pair+FD combos.

[ QUOTE ]

66,330 games 0.005 secs 13,266,000 games/sec

Board: 2d 7h Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.176% 36.15% 05.03% 23978 3334.00 { AhQc }
Hand 1: 58.824% 53.80% 05.03% 35684 3334.00 { 77, 22, ATs+, A7s, A2s, Kd7d, Qd7d, Jd7d, Td7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 7d3d, 72s, ATo+, A7o, A2o, 72o }

[/ QUOTE ]

If I decrease the range to just the hands that beat me + AJ then I'm still at enough equity to call for 3:1 odds.

[ QUOTE ]

44,550 games 0.005 secs 8,910,000 games/sec

Board: 2d 7h Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.190% 26.04% 07.15% 11600 3186.00 { AhQc }
Hand 1: 66.810% 59.66% 07.15% 26578 3186.00 { 77, 22, AJs+, A2s, AJo+, A7o, A2o, 72o }

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys still think this is a fold when I'm getting 3:1? Is it because of reverse implied odds (I hit top 2 and still get stacked)?

I had a very strong feeling that his holding was either of the ace 2 pairs, because he probably doesn't play a set this fast when pfr raises him. So I figured I could peel one card and then evaluate.

Wolfram · #10 01-02-2007, 01:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is folding preflop bad here?

[/ QUOTE ]
folding pf seems extremely nitty. I probably 3bet this.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd never fold this pre in 6max. I didn't 3bet because original raiser was a calling station that didn't raise that many hands.