Question about betting favorites

fnurt · #1 01-01-2007, 11:06 PM

Let's say my unit size is $50 and I pretty much bet that on every game. Now, let's say I decide to bet a big fave. Does it make more sense to bet $250 to win $50, or do I want to bet $50 to win $10?

I know I've seen this discussed before, but I'm not agile enough with the search feature or something (although I tried). My recollection is that there's not 100% consensus on this issue, but I don't remember the arguments either way.

Thremp · #2 01-01-2007, 11:20 PM

Use Kelly Criterion.

MCS · #3 01-02-2007, 12:06 AM

Sharp Sports Betting says $250 to win $50.

rjp · #4 01-02-2007, 12:15 AM

The odds are adjusted such that you're still going to, over the long term, win a specific % of your bankroll. You're more likely to win, of course, but you won't win as much as say laying -110. As such, by risking the same amount on a -250 wager as you do on a -110 wager you will, over the long term, win an equal percentage of your bankroll with both bets. By wagering more on the -250 than on the -110 bet you're going to "miss" out on money on your -110 bet, as you'll win a smaller percentage of your bankroll with the -110 over the long term.

Obviously if you find a -110 bet that is truly -250 you might consider the kelly criterion.

Homer · #5 01-02-2007, 12:23 AM

$250 to win $50

Kelly criterion suggests the same -- a -110 bet with a 5% roi, you should bet $550 to win $500 (with a $10k roll) and a -250 bet with a 5% roi, you should bet $1250 to win $500. So basically, your "to win" amount stays constant.

Thremp · #6 01-02-2007, 12:59 AM

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The odds are adjusted such that you're still going to, over the long term, win a specific % of your bankroll. You're more likely to win, of course, but you won't win as much as say laying -110. As such, by risking the same amount on a -250 wager as you do on a -110 wager you will, over the long term, win an equal percentage of your bankroll with both bets. By wagering more on the -250 than on the -110 bet you're going to "miss" out on money on your -110 bet, as you'll win a smaller percentage of your bankroll with the -110 over the long term.

Obviously if you find a -110 bet that is truly -250 you might consider the kelly criterion.

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I'm not sure what you are saying, but I'm pretty sure its not right.

MCS · #7 01-02-2007, 01:39 AM

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So basically, your "to win" amount stays constant.

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And as a side note, it's also true for greater-then-even-money bets, though almost no one does it that way. For example, if you're betting something at +800, you should bet $6.50 to win $50. I usually bet like 0.5 units to win 4 though, cause I don't want to bet a full unit but the fun of longshots is the big payoff.

rjp · #8 01-02-2007, 10:41 AM

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I'm not sure what you are saying, but I'm pretty sure its not right.

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What I'm saying is that you've got a 5% expectation over the long term at -250 and -110. You expect to win -250 more often than you do -110, but you still expect a 5% return over the long term. If you were to risk the same amount on both the -250 and -110 wager then you will over the long term expect to win a proportional amount of your bankroll. If you risk more on the -250 then you will over the long term win more in relation to your bankroll than you will compraed to wagers placed at -110 odds. As such, you're cutting yourself short on the -110 bets if you've got a 5% expectation either way.

It's all in the math--try it sometime.

fnurt · #9 01-02-2007, 11:53 AM

Well, right, if you bet less on a +EV wager you're leaving money on the table... but that would be equally true of any bet you make. I guess you left me several levels behind with that point.

Colonel Kataffy · #10 01-02-2007, 11:59 AM

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Well, right, if you bet less on a +EV wager you're leaving money on the table... but that would be equally true of any bet you make. I guess you left me several levels behind with that point.

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Since you never bet 100% of your roll, then your always leaving money on the table. The reason you do this is variance. If your betting 1 in a 100 shots, your gonna need a very big roll. If you betting 1 in 10 shots, then a smaller one is ok. If your actually betting a favorite, than an even smaller roll is ok.