Common AK spot.

[NinaWilliams]

Villain sat down 1 orbit ago, and we played this hand together:

7h</font>
Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG (poster) checks, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3.5BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5.5BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Results:
Final pot: 7.5BB
Hero Shows 8d 8c
UTG mucks Kc 7h

How many outs do you give me on the turn? And how often am I ahead?

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7SB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB folds.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4.5BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises</font>, Hero ???

[Hoover]

I don't see how you're ever ahead here. I'd say you're pretty much always drawing to 4 outs. I'd fold.

[jstill]

u can probably give urself about 6-7 or so outs on the turn (sometimes u ll only have 4, sometiems u ll have 7 if reverse dominated and rarely all 10) particularly if he ll take this line with one pair which is a lot of his cold calling range that raises this board on the turn tpgk type hands.

so you can see the river calling any improvement (obviously if u make the nuts raising). sometimes he ll raise the turn with KQ or AQ or some semibluff as well and u ll get the free showdown.

if i rivered a K or A i probably wouldn't raise.

[stickdude]

Call the raise. check/fold if you don't improve, check/call if you do (unless you spike a Q obviously).

[dano]

Based on how passively this villain played the previous hand, I don't think you're ahead often enough to even bother with. KQ:diamond or 9x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

You have 4 outs. You have even less if he holds Q9.

[justkevin]

I would say you're rarely ahead here-- this would be an incredibly bold turn bluff without a scare card.

As for outs, best case scenario is he was chasing a straight with 9T and now has a pair. Maybe 6-7 outs? Not enough to call at 6.5:1.

[jstill]

[ QUOTE ]
Based on how passively this villain played the previous hand, I don't think you're ahead often enough to even bother with. KQ:diamond or 9x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

You have 4 outs. You have even less if he holds Q9.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think the fact that he played the hand where he had K hi passively (and called down with it) is particularly relevant and a piece of information that should lead us to fold here if anything it helps our range.

as for u viewing this from a worst case scenerio if he has Q9 kind of outlook isnt particularly productive either, and this hand isnt really a matter of being ahead often enuff to call since i certainly think we are likely to be behind probably 9 times out of 10 but advocate seeing the river.

[jstill]

[ QUOTE ]
I would say you're rarely ahead here-- this would be an incredibly bold turn bluff without a scare card.

As for outs, best case scenario is he was chasing a straight with 9T and now has a pair. Maybe 6-7 outs? Not enough to call at 6.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree we are rarely ahead here as well and this decision is actually very close. on the turn all that really matters is that we are getting 7.5 to 1 on the call. u can round that down to 7 to one for the effect of the rake if ud like which is just enuff if our equity is likely to be around 6 outs. While i dont think a semibluff here is any less likely than any other time (many call the flop in position with a draw and raise any turn) i dont think its a particularly good spot for it due to the turn card with a fd or KQ or AQ since he cant expect to fold out much besides a PP lower than 10 (which sometimes check fold the turn) and alot of ur range is a J AK AQ and KQ but that doesnt mean villain couldnt be doing that and often times when called on the turn these semibluffs give up on the river in position. The possibility of this while not an overwhelming factor in the decision is important and pushs this moreso even to a call.

if this was the type of villain who would never (or rarely) raise the turn with one pair u could just fold here, but i dont know of any villains thats true of who play short handed. his line here could easily be QJ KJ AJ J9 or some random pair freeshow downing (based on the first hand this guy is likely a donk so u never know what he is capable of)which is why we give ourselves 6 or so outs on avg and not just 4.

[TomBrooks]

Call.

IMO, you made a mistake which put you in this situation by betting the turn. The 8, J and T hit a lot of hands and you're often behind at least a pair here. There is a high probability that you're going to get raised or you're betting CO's hand for him. You could have up to 10 outs here so you'd like to see the river, but you don't want to pay two bets to do so.

You bet your strong hands for value (b/c, b/rr), your weak hands for a bluff (b/f), but check and call with your mediocre hands.

I think it's much better to C/C the turn.

[DCWildcat]

All that hand 1 taught us is that villain is dumb--how does it teach us that he's passive? Only a maniac of legendary proportions would be aggressive with K high there. There's no suggestion from his play that he's only raising the turn with huge hands, which some have concluded.