Toney vs Peter 1/6

[Glenn]

I was going to stay away from this fight. Then I found out James Toney weighed 223 lbs at last check. He weighed 258 for the last fight. He is eating 1500 cals/day and actually doing cardio. Sam Peter is not very good at boxing. Toney by DEC +195, but it's dropping so I got in already (down to +189 now while I'm posting this). When Toney appears later this week looking much more fit, the line is going to move a lot. He is currently the underdog in the fight, but by DEC is a much better bet IMO. It is hard to imagine a scenario where Toney stops Peter without something bizarre happening. Certainly less than the 15% or so required to take him at +101 instead. Assuming the Toney fitness rumors are true, I can see him winning by DEC 50% of the time, which means this bet has value all the way to +100. In fact, it could easily be more than that.

The other tempting bet on this fight is the over at -224. Neither fighter has ever been stopped. Toney doesn't have KO power at heavyweight, and Peters wide shots probably aren't enough for Toney's hard head and good defense. However it's tough to take the over for a heavyweight fight at -224, so I'm still debating this. There is always the chance that Toney's body will react poorly to his weight loss, or that someone will be injured/cut. And Peter can certainly hit.

[thing85]

Good call on Toney - he's at +101 now.

[dankhank]

you sold me on win by decision

[Strickly Bidness]

hottest over ive ever seen in boxing

[Tuds75]

Don't forget in their last fight Sam Peter also came in his heaviest, but much like Toney, Sam Peter is getting in fighting shape and looking good for his bout.



An out-of-shape Peter boxed an out-of-shape Toney to a DEC, now an in-shape Peter will be fighting a not-so-out-of-shape James Toney. I see the same outcome as before, Peter by DEC.


Tuds

[Donk4Life]

Draw bet on Pinny looks tempting, i'll stay away though.

[Tragichero]

Even though Toney lost the first fight, he really won, I had him 8 rounds to 4 and Peter had a deduction for that double behind the head punch he pulled. Not that this means squat but I am a boxing writer and I have a little bit of inside of the game, and nearly everyone I spoke to after the fight thought Toney one. I am picking Toney by decision, but if Toney gets hurt, like he did in the third round of the first fight with Peter in better shape he may be able to capitalize. By the way, Peter Biographies have him at 26 years old...he's more like 34...unless he sparred with David Izon when he was about 10...Also a guy I know claims to have gone to school with him and he is 34...that doesn't mean much here...but Peter is clearly not a young up and comming fighter

[Glenn]

Important correction from my first post, Toney did not weigh 258 for the last fight, that was Peter, I read it backwards. I didn't use that number in my analysis though, so my opinion remains the same.

[Strickly Bidness]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget in their last fight Sam Peter also came in his heaviest, but much like Toney, Sam Peter is getting in fighting shape and looking good for his bout.



An out-of-shape Peter boxed an out-of-shape Toney to a DEC, now an in-shape Peter will be fighting a not-so-out-of-shape James Toney. I see the same outcome as before, Peter by DEC.


Tuds

[/ QUOTE ]

u tell em Tuds (this is Indy)

[Tuds75]

Toney was at his 2nd heaviest weight of his career, but looked HORRIBLE (not as bad as he did against Rahman, but close).

I saw the fight live and thought it was really close and could have seen either guy winning the fight, but I thought on the whole Peter won the fight. Toney's punches did no real damage to Peter and Peter looked to hurt Toney a few times (of course Toney might been off balance with all that weight he is carring).

I think the fact Peter went 12 rounds with the best technical fighter in the HW division and held his own and actually won will go along way to improve Sam Peter as a boxer.

Tuds