NBA Overlays - January

[rjp]

YTD: 64-63-3 (-8.10 units; ROI: -6.38%)

Started December up ~7 and ended down ~8.

Minnesota Timberwolves -165

The Bobcats will be without their two best players tonight: B. Knight and G. Wallace. These injuries are a big blow to a young team filled with talent, but not quite ready to turn the corner just yet. The Bobcats have won two straight, something that doesn’t happen very often, while the Timberwolves are coming off a loss in New Jersey. I expect Minnesota to play with more intensity tonight, and they will win this game often enough to be profitable at this price. I find more value with laying the money line over laying the points.

[llabb]

Solid card last night, great on sides, not so much elsewhere. Would probably have swept the sides if not for Dirk being a last minute, unexpected scratch for the game.

For tonight, I agree with you on Minnesota, rjp. Minnesota's a decent team, while Charlotte is not, and is injured on top of that. Agree with Minnesota coming out strong, particularly Garnett after a poor couple games.

I already took Minnesota and laid the 3.5 pts, but I can see your argument for the moneyline. Thinking about it more and looking at these prices, I'd rather lay the points at 3 or fewer, but perhaps would rather have the moneyline at the current 62% winrate threshhold than lay 3.5+ pts. Not a huge difference though imo, so no biggie.

Charlotte also gives up a ton of points, even more than usual lately. New (old) ball may have a detrimental effect, but recent team performances point strongly enough to the Over that I took it anyway.

In the other game, Boston has been horrible without Pierce, and Wally and Delonte are somewhat injured as well. Again, the line doesn't seem to account enough for this to me, so I like Portland here. Think there's more value in the first half line than whole game, so took that.

Total seems pretty close to me, but I'm wondering how much impact the immediate switch-over to the new ball in mid-season will have. Boston's on a back-to-back, and will be the only team in the league to go straight from a game the previous night with the microfiber ball, to the new-old leather ball without any practice with it in between. Not only does this additionally point towards taking Portland, but leans to the Under as well. Nothing major though, so just taking a small flyer on it.

Sides:
Minnesota -3.5, -109, 1.5u
Portland -3.5 1H, -105, 1.5u

Totals:
Minnesota/Charlotte Over 189, -106
Boston/Portland Under 189, +102, 0.5u

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NBA: 6-3, +2.80u (+28.8% ROI on 9.72u wagered)
Sides: 4-1, +2.95u
Totals: 1-2, -1.15u
Props: 1-0, +1.00u (0-2, -2.40u non-counted past-posted plays)

[llabb]

Props:
Garnett Over 22 pts, -103
Morrison Over 14 pts, -132

Garnett motivated by sub-par last couple games, historically does well following this. Gerald Wallace out, Morrison will need to score more, scored 30 in the last game.

[Queensgrad]

My december sucked, so I dont deserve my own thread.

POR -3.5 vs BOS 1st H (from the discussion in this forum)

BOS/POR U189.0. New ball, B2B for BOS, and they are bad w/out Peirce.

MIN/CHA O189.5

CHA +3.5 vs MIN. I seem off here, but the home team has won last 4 meetings. CHA is feeling good, Minny is feeling bad. Its very possible they come out hungry to turn it around, but they have lost 4 of last 5 on the road. I think it continues.

[llabb]

Props:
Tony Allen Over 14.5 pts, -126
Al Jefferson Over 15.5 pts, -135

Odds on these suck, and I should have taken them this morning, but didn't get to the player props for this game in time, and had to leave for the afternoon. With Pierce out though, these two are the primary scoring options for the Celtics. There is some uncertainty with Wally and Delonte, both of which can score, so these are a little dubious at these odds, but I still like them conceptually, so took them.

[rjp]

If the Bobcats continue to shoot 66% from 3pt range they'll never lose.

[Jackboot]

Way to go on the Timberwolves game. Nice comeback.

[rjp]

Glad to see some baskets fall my way. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

YTD: 65-63-3 (-7.49 units; ROI: -5.85%)

Seattle SuperSonics +11 (-104)

The last time these teams met the Sonics lost by 8. They played without R. Allen and R. Lewis played for ~1 minute. Seattle will have Allen tonight, and Fortson is likely to play tonight, someone that Seattle really needs to help control the paint.

New York Knicks +9.5 (-105)

[Queensgrad]

I like these two picks. Do you like NY/SAC over?

[McFadden]

Great way to start the New Year, rjp. Best of luck.