JJ river play

[cold_cash]

I decided to play a few hands of full ring tonight just for kicks. The vast majority of my recent hands have been shorthanded. I don't know if that makes a dif.

The CO here was not a very good player. He was very loose before the flop, almost always limping in or cold-calling. After the flop he was much more aggressive. In previous hands he cold-called and then checkraised multiple opponents w/ middle pair, etc. He had also 3-barrel bluffed me with nothing, betting into me after having cold-called. So anyway..

Online, 9 handed

I raise first in w/ J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in middle position, everyone folds to the CO who calls, blinds fold.

Heads up to the flop, 5.5 little bets.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet, he calls.

Turn (3.5 big bets): 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, he raises, I 3-bet, he calls.

River (9.5 big bets): 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Your turn now.

[marchron]

He's either got 9x or will bluff at it, so unless I'm missing something, this is about the easiest check/call ever. Unless you really think you can c/f or b/f against this goofball, or you really think your hand is good enough to c/r or b/3, none of which look particularly appetizing.

[cold_cash]

No, I wasnt considering checkraising or bet/raising. I'm also never folding.

The thing was that I figured there was some chance he would bluff raise and I could win an extra bet if I bet out. I certainly didn't want zero bets going in, and I'd called him down quickly in the other hand when he was bluffing. Also, even though he's going to bluff-bet a good amount of the time, he'll also call down with any pair. (And sometimes raise those pairs also.)

Maybe this was a crappy hand to post.

[psy]

I've played against a few of these villains. They're fairly common at .05/.10

I'd say bet call. You didn't mention his calling standards but if he occasionally plays middle pair with aggression then he's probably calling with any pair. After your 3 bet on the turn he may not bet again with an 8 but he'll probably call it. Also he's as likely to bluff raise the river (especially to that card) as he is if you check to him. Especially if he's been running good during the session and is feeling lucky.

[aK13]

check/call by a long shot.

[unterfish]

*grunch*
I think a check/call is fine here. 3-flush plus another 9 makes this aggressive guy bluff more often. I think calling is almost mandatory against this guy.
So, b/c isnt that good IMO because he probably is also able to fold which means that he could prolly fold air or bottom pair.
Plus, he calls a bet maybe with middle pair. But he will raise you with a nine or a flush much more often than he will bluff you.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*
I think a check/call is fine here. 3-flush plus another 9 makes this aggressive guy bluff more often. I think calling is almost mandatory against this guy.
So, b/c isnt that good IMO because he probably is also able to fold which means that he could prolly fold air or bottom pair.
Plus, he calls a bet maybe with middle pair. But he will raise you with a nine or a flush much more often than he will bluff you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he would ever fold a pair if I bet the river.

Yes, he will bet many worse hands on the end, but he will also call with them.

I think this might be closer than everyone seems to think, but maybe not.

[bigwavedave]

I think you have to bet the river and expect him to call with a 4 or a 5.

I don't think he was on a flush draw because he would have probably raised the flop.

I don't think the turn card gave him a better hand than yours because he didn't cap it.

I don't think he has a 9 because he probably would have raised the flop or capped the turn if he had a 9.

I think he would call your check raise on the river, I just don't think he would bet often enough to make it a higher EV play.

Unlesss... what if he thinks he has the best hand with his pair of fives? Would he bet it on the river?

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*
I think a check/call is fine here. 3-flush plus another 9 makes this aggressive guy bluff more often. I think calling is almost mandatory against this guy.
So, b/c isnt that good IMO because he probably is also able to fold which means that he could prolly fold air or bottom pair.
Plus, he calls a bet maybe with middle pair. But he will raise you with a nine or a flush much more often than he will bluff you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he would ever fold a pair if I bet the river.

Yes, he will bet many worse hands on the end, but he will also call with them.

I think this might be closer than everyone seems to think, but maybe not.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, let's do some algebra.

He's beating you a certain percentage of the time. Let's call it x. If you check, he'll bet regardless of whether he has you beat or not, and you'll call regardless. Since we are never folding, we can basically evaluate the EV of the river independently of all the other streets.

So if you check/call, x% of the time you'll lose one bet and (100-x)% of the time you'll win one bet.

EV(c/c) = x(-1) + (100-x)(1)
EV(c/c) = -x + 100 - x
EV(c/c) = 100 - 2x

You can quickly see that c/c is +EV if he's beating you less than half the time. This much is somewhat obvious.

But if you bet, if he's beating you he'll raise, meaning you'll lose two bets. I think it's a safe bet to assume he's never folding, because I don't think "nothing" is in his range here — there's a difference between a Villain three-barrelling when he's first to act and raising the turn into consistent strength; he has something here, and he's almost certainly calling, even if it's just a 4 — and besides, if he's folding at all it makes this calculation even more of a pain in the ass.

So the question becomes, how often will he merely call, and how often will he bluff-raise? Let's set his bluff-raising percentage as another variable, y.

EV(b/c) = x(-2) + y(2) + (100-x-y)(1)
EV(b/c) = -2x + 2y + 100 - x - y
EV(b/c) = 100 - 3x + y

So now we have two formulas. In order to find out how much his bluff-raising percentage (y) has to be in order to make bet/calling more profitable than check/calling, we set up an inequality with the two EV calculations:

EV(c/c) < EV(b/c)
100 - 2x < 100 - 3x + y
-2x < -3x + y
x < y

Therefore, bet/calling is more profitable than check/calling if and only if he will bluff-raise more often than he has the best hand. So, which is it? You say he cold-calls a lot: what's his VPIP? Would he go nuts on the flop with top pair or would he wait a street? Would he semi-bluff a flush draw on the turn but not the flop? If he has 76, would he cap the turn or merely smooth-call your three-bet in order to go to war with you on the river?

In my gut, the answer is no, his bluff-raising percentage isn't as often as when he has the best hand. Even crazy villains usually aren't that daring, and if they were, you would have seen it by now.

[unterfish]

As I stated earlier, I like your comments. But as I stated earlier, I do disagree about someones like this one:
You cannot use percentage terms like this. Its flawed.