Break-even pot odds with 2 cards to come?

[Poker Plan]

Is there any point to knowing break-even pot odds when there is two cards to come?

The reason I ask is that the answer it gives you is completely messed up if you have to contribute another bet on the turn to see the second card???

ie
I have a gutshot on the flop.
With 2 cards to come, the break-even pot odds are 5:1 against. If the pot is laying me 5:1 on my call, I'm going to break even right??? Wrong? This is only correct if either I'm all-in or the turn is checked through so it doesn't cost me any more???

Am I right in thinking that break-even pot odds calculations should be a basic rule of thumb that needs to be adapted in almost all situations? ie it is far too simplistic to just decide on the "1" or "2card" formular and use it? ie If you're drawing to the nut flush on the flop- YES you will have to put in another bet on the turn and maybe more if it gets raised; BUT you will collect more
bets than are currently in the pot- so the basic calc is out of the window.
Help! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Cheers,
Ian

[AaronBrown]

You're correct. The break-even with two cards to come is only meaningful for all-in bets (or the case you mention, if you somehow know the turn will be checked). You really need to consider (a) the money you will have to contribute to see the river if you miss the turn, and (b) the money you can get the other player to contribute if you hit the turn or river.

[Poker Plan]

Thanks for the reply.

So it seems the break-even pot odds calc is just a point of departure, a general principle rather than a definite rule.

Just like everything else in poker- it is such an amalgamation of different things- maths, reads, position, etc; the trick (I assume) is learning to balance (and account) for these facets all at the same time. I assume a lot of this ability (once the principles are understood) comes from experience? I've only played 26K hands online total- so I'm still at the 1 step forward, 1.5 back stage!

Thanks again for the reply.

Ian

[AaronBrown]

Yes, that's a good way to put it.

The break-even pot odds versus your chance of filling your straight is an objective calculation. The other important variables, bets on the turn or river if you do or don't hit, whether you can win without the straight or lose with it, are conjectural. Sometimes an exact calculation of something that is not quite what you want to know is more useful than a guess about what you really want to know. It's too easy to fool yourself with estimates.

[Dov]

What you are talking about is actually called Effective Odds in TOP.

You are correct that your current pot odds need to adjusted higher or lower to account for later betting.

There are, however, certain times when it is good to know the 2 card odds anyway. One example just pops out; that of a loose passive player.

When these guys are passive post flop, you will often see the turn and river for the price of a flop bet or call. So you won't need to adjust your odds b/c they are not likely to bet again.

Dov