Iraq, post-Saddam

Mickey Brausch · #1 12-31-2006, 04:02 AM

Very succinct, somber evaluation in Newsweek:

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It is worth remembering that Saddam Hussein was not your run-of-the-mill dictator. He created one of the most brutal, corrupt and violent regimes in modern history, something akin to Stalin's Soviet Union, Mao's China or Kim Jong Il's North Korea. Whatever the strategic wisdom for the United States, deposing him began as something unquestionably good for Iraq.
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But soon the Bush administration dismissed the idea of trying Saddam under international law, or in a court with any broader legitimacy. This is the administration, after all, that could see little advantage to a United Nations mandate for its own invasion and occupation. It put Saddam's fate in the hands of the new Iraqi government, dominated by Shiite and Kurdish politicians who had been victims of his reign. As a result, Saddam's trial, which should have been the judgment of civilized society against a tyrant, is now seen by Iraq's Sunnis and much of the Arab world as a farce, reflecting only the victors' vengeance.
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This was not inevitable. Most Iraqis were happy to see Saddam out of power. In the months after the American invasion, support for the Coalition Provisional Authority topped 70 percent. This was so even among Iraq's Sunni Arabs. In the first months of the insurgency, only 14 percent of them approved of attacks on U.S. troops. (That number today is 70 percent.) The rebellious area in those early months was not (Sunni) Fallujah but (Shiite) Najaf.
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But during those crucial first months, Washington disbanded the Iraqi Army, fired 50,000 bureaucrats and shut down the government-owned enterprises that employed most Iraqis. In effect, the United States dismantled the Iraqi state, leaving a deep security vacuum, administrative chaos and soaring unemployment. That state was dominated by Iraq's Sunni elites, who read this not as just a regime change but a revolution in which they had become the new underclass. For them, the new Iraq looked like a new dictatorship.
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Why Washington made such profound moves with such little forethought remains one of the many puzzles of the Bush administration's foreign policy.

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Full article here.

The dictator's last words, before they pulled the lever, were allegedly "Iraq without me is nothing." I wonder if that will turn out to be true.

Richard Tanner · #2 12-31-2006, 04:23 AM

First we have to remove the problems, then rebuild. This takes time. Right now Iraq is in chaos and no one except Dubya didn't see this coming, but with years of work, Iraqi's citizens can be reemployed, its infrastructure rebuilt and its people "domesticated" (oh boy that's gonna piss some people off).

Will it be perfect? What is. Is it America's job? Debatable. Is it work that most american's don't want to do? I feel comfortable saying yes.

All that said, we're there now, grab a hammer.

Cody

Poofler · #3 12-31-2006, 04:45 AM

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First we have to remove the problems, then rebuild.

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What if removing problems creates bigger problems? I might have a splinter in my hand, but I don't cut my hand off at the wrist to be rid of it. Every solution has it's own consequences, and those consequences of certain decisions have arguably been worse than letting the "problem" be.

Phil153 · #4 12-31-2006, 05:09 AM

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First we have to remove the problems, then rebuild.

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Successful conquest doesn't work like this. Running a large city requires massive amounts of local knowledge and skilled manpower, totalling hundreds of millions of man hours in experience. You have to maintain the existing competency base, however corrupt, or your conquered city will become a nest of vipers. History has shown this time and time and time again. I don't know why America ignored it.

Mickey Brausch · #5 12-31-2006, 05:47 AM

Why do I predict that, in the current circumstances, these folks are doomed ?

Howard Beale · #6 12-31-2006, 05:55 AM

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Why Washington made such profound moves with such little forethought remains one of the many puzzles of the Bush administration's foreign policy.

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This about sums it up for me.

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The dictator's last words, before they pulled the lever, were allegedly "Iraq without me is nothing." I wonder if that will turn out to be true.

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Thomas Friedman, NYT, used to ask 'Is Iraq the way it is because Saddam is the way he is, or is Saddam the way he is because Iraq is the way it is?'

I think the latter has been proven to be the case.

AlexM · #7 12-31-2006, 06:02 AM

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The dictator's last words, before they pulled the lever, were allegedly "Iraq without me is nothing." I wonder if that will turn out to be true.

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I wonder how anyone can do anything but laugh at such a statement. If Bush were to say the same about the U.S. would you also wonder if it were true?

Mickey Brausch · #8 12-31-2006, 06:06 AM

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First we have to remove the problems, then rebuild.

[/ QUOTE ]I thought this line of thinking has been totally discredited by now. I used to mock the neo-cons who were posturing after the 2003 military victory in Iraq, that we now need to "get rid of the Ba'ath fascists". The few voices of reason which tried to argue that one needs the infrastructure to remain intact if one is to be a successful occupier (even though those same voices were generally against the war) were dismissed with arrogance and mockery.

Amazing how imbecilic an otherwise powerful nation can be at times.

"Why Washington made such profound moves with such little forethought remains one of the many puzzles of the Bush administration's foreign policy."

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We're there now, grab a hammer.

[/ QUOTE ] After watching yet another White House press conference on Iraq, I'm thinking shovel.

lozen · #9 12-31-2006, 01:06 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
First we have to remove the problems, then rebuild.

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What if removing problems creates bigger problems? I might have a splinter in my hand, but I don't cut my hand off at the wrist to be rid of it. Every solution has it's own consequences, and those consequences of certain decisions have arguably been worse than letting the "problem" be.

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Agreed it is going to get worse

Money2Burn · #10 12-31-2006, 01:26 PM

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Kim Jong Il's North Korea.

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Wasn't it Kim Il Sung's NK, or did it only get so bad since Kim Jung Il has gotten in there?