AAJ2 hand

[Hattifnatt]

From memory so everything might not be 100% correct but I'll do my best.

Have been at the table for 40 mins or so, Villian seems solid, semi-loose passive preflop and have been playing well postflop.

I have a pretty LAG image ATM and have been pretty active both pre- (raising many hands) and postflop for the last 15 minutes or so.

Stacks:

UTG (Villian) $520
Hero: $650

Online 2.5/5 PL Omaha, 9-players

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villian calls, folded to Hero that raises pot to 22.5, folded to Button who calls, SB and BB folds

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (75, 3 players)
Villian bets pot 75, Hero calls, Button folds

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (225, 2 players)
Villian bets 225, Hero..? Villian have 422.5 left including the 225 bet.

I dont think call is an option here but if you like that alternative write it in textform.

Comments on the flop are welcome as well. I just called to see what happens on the turn and planned to muck if Button raises behind.

Please think a bit before answer the poll / writing an answer and a motivation is very welcome..

[ColdDecker333]

EDIT: OK, just noticed you have raised much pre, then this is almost an autopush. JJJ is very likely holding. If he had low run, then you have many outs.

[Bartholow]

I can see logic of folding but it still seems awful here. Sure it's unlikely he has JJ, and you'll say the only possible semi-bluffs include 45, but in my experience you'll see enough other junk to make this a profitable push.

[goblue2k6]

Definitely agree with the push.

[TheRempel]

I probably would have raised the flop.

This is a very tricky spot. He has a hand on the flop that he is willing to play for stacks (he is leading out into the PFR and a LP caller) and something like 3456 or 2345 would be a likely lead. Calling is of course never an option so basically this is a spot where I would go with my gut and my notes on the villain.

[CrushinFelt]

This is a strange hand and depends on the villain. A few thoughts:

1) His flop lead is defining a very strong hand (either a set or 456x) if he is solid postflop.

2) He didn't slow down when the turn completed the only draw on the board.

The only hands you beat that lead into that flop are sets and given his turn bet I think he had a big draw on the flop and hit it on the turn while hitting your "best" card. I think you need a read in order to shove this turn (shove > call if you're going to put more money in the pot).

As for the flop play, his lead indicates a lot of strength (he's probably not doing this with just 23xx unless its 2345 which you have 65% equity against). I like the flop call to see if he slows down on a blank-ish turn. Making a habit of raising with top and bottom pair against a solid post-flop player after this flop lead is not a good idea.

I take your same line in the hand, and I fold the turn.

[Hattifnatt]

CrushinFelt> This was exactly my thoughts + a few other additional things, stated below.

Directly after playing the hand my thought was something like, "oh well, I hit top set on the turn and couldnt get away, of course he could have 45 but then I can fill up".

But then I thought some about it came to the conclusion that this probably is an easy fold.

# He leads on the flop into 2 ppl (1 is pfr) which most probably meaning 45, 456x or a set. I have a J and a 2 in my hand making a set less probable than otherwise.

# On the turn the A comes, which is by far the Worst card in the deck if he have a set (ex. 333) because the only draw complete so he must be very afriad I have 45, he must also be afraid I have AAxx and he and doesnt slow down leads for a full psb anyway.

# "If he have 45 I have a lot of outs.." not at all, I blocking my full house outs because I have the J and the 2 so I only have 8 cards to fill up with and its only 1 card to come which means 18% chance of drawing out. If I had for example all my cards live and an additional gutshot or flush draw to the set its a diff story and I am in much less bad shape vs the nuts.

# The stack sizes makes the odds "worse" than if for example it was 1 psb left because as stated I cannot call. so I have to put $422.5 in a $225 pot as a most probable 4.5:1 dog.

The poll result with 76% push doesnt surprise me much but I think that the very most of you can agree that this is a fold with the arguments above.

As for the (not so relevant, and prob not suprising) result I did pushed, he called with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the nuts with higher straight draws and a additional flush draw.

I think it was an intresting hand by any means and the first time ever I am so sure one play is correct directly but after a few minutes thought think the complete opposite.

Further comments on it are weclome for sure.

[ColdDecker333]

Well, these hands are very hard to comment without knowing the opponent exactly, like all the PLO400 and up hands, especially shorthanded. That´s why e.g I don´t post hands here, 99% of the interesting spots are read dependant.

[Hattifnatt]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, these hands are very hard to comment without knowing the opponent exactly, like all the PLO400 and up hands, especially shorthanded. That´s why e.g I don´t post hands here, 99% of the interesting spots are read dependant.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course the hands with strong reads, history etc. are generally the most intresting. I think this hand was intresting anyway because of the first sight that a push is simple but with some more analyze I think its a pretty clear fold just with the small read that he doesnt seems to be an idiot. All the non-2+2 players I have showed the hand for agree this is a fold.

It also shows the problem with the small time we have to act on most online sites. If this was a live game I am sure there is a much higher chance that I woulda found a fold.

[DrMagic]

I think this is a shove given the pot size, the likelihood of JJ and your equity against a straight.