Is laying down Kings ever going to be profitable?????

[AC-Cobra]

Heres the first hand. No reads, but I'm certain the guy has aces, gut feelin plus the information provided.

SImple one really. Can it be solidly justified that my opponent here is going to have aces more often than not, therefore making a fold +EV???

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t1460)
MP3 (t2790)
CO (t2760)
Button (t880)
SB (t1390)
BB (t660)
UTG (t2500)
Hero (t2790)
MP1 (t770)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t100</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t180</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t540</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t1060</font>, Hero ????


I have a more interesting 3 way hand that compliments the discussion well which I will attempt to find also

Thanks

AC

[Jeff76]

What is the buy in?

Honestly, I can't really fault a fold here, though afterward I probably go on tilt and donk off the rest of my chips with A3.

[SuperUberBob]

Aside from absolutely ridiculous circumstances, I am not folding KK preflop, at least not in a online MTT. Even if he ends up having AA, oh well.

[HappyOD]

At the low limit tournaments I play in, there always seems to be a few players who overplay TT+, especially early(probably because they don't last till later). So if this is a low buy-in, I think all the possible hands the loose players bring into the equation make it difficult for this to be a +EV. However, with no information, and a strong gut feeling, I can't fault a laydown. Doyle says "the fourth raise is always aces".

[Jeff76]

I dunno, if this guy is seriously MIN 4 betting with anything but AA, there will be other opportunities to get his chips.

[fasteddy1970]

I've got a feeling that at the stakes I play at $4. and $10. 180s, this is a huge EV move day in and day out. I don't know if the same applies to buy ins of over $50. but I can't imagine folding in that situation even there.

[omaha]

Yeah, i agree, you almost have to move in and treat kk like aa.
Yep, we all get pissed off when we are shown aa once in a while, but at the limits i play, (stars 6.5), it is the nuts.

One exception, utg raises, i (in mp) reraise, utg goes all in. I tend to think about folding kk here, but usually call. Too many donkeys make your possibly loose call good over the long run

[fasteddy1970]

That's the problem with the low limit games. Even if you know the correct way to play, in situations like this the correct way doesn't apply and is not profitable in long or even short run.

T.J Cloutier wrote in one of his books that the third raise means pocket AA. Well, T.J was talking about world class players or at least real good ones. At the limits I play at the third raise usually means A-Q pocket 10s etc.