Huge Draw on Turn. Huge overbet by villian.

[Mr.JR]

$10 buy-in HU SNG. Started with 20/40 blinds and 2000 chips. About 15 hands in, I have 1800, they have 2200. Villian seems passive/aggressive: Limps often pre-flop. Doesn't take stabs at small pots. If they bet, they bet 2/3+ pot.

I'm SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and limp. Villian raises to 100. I call.

Flop J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (280t)

Villan bets 200, I call.

Turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (680t)

Villian shoves, I have 1400 left behind. Anyone fold this huge draw with one to come?

[jay_shark]

You are receiving pot odds of 680+1400:1400 which equates to 1.48:1 . So you need about a 1/2.48= 40 % chance of winning to make the call worthwhile .

Using the 2x rule , you have about a 15*2=30% chance of making your hand .

verdict: fold

[Mr.JR]

I take it you two are assuming the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is not an out for me?

[Punker]

I assume they are both outs. That leaves you 9 flush outs and 6 straight outs, for 15 outs. You don't have odds.

[jay_shark]

Remember not to overcount your outs .

You have 9+8-2 =15 outs

You have to subtract 2 because 2 of your straight outs can also be flush outs .

[Mr.JR]

[ QUOTE ]
Remember not to overcount your outs .

You have 9+8-2 =15 outs

You have to subtract 2 because 2 of your straight outs can also be flush outs .

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew I was missing something.

[Punker]

Based on your numbers, you have more than 1400 left behind. This is a simple fold. You know eight high will not win a showdown, and you don't have odds to draw to 15 outs.