is narcotics distribution a dying business?

[talentdeficit]

prices are in free fall. heroin was 25x more expensive - unadjusted for inflation! - forty years ago. cocaine is almost as cheap as crack by weight. methamphetamines can be had virtually for free.

the ancillary costs of the narcotics trade are ridiculous when compared to other retail commodities. government interference, violent competition and supplier monopolies all add overhead. there is also the opportunity cost of years lost to incarceration.

so why isn't the drug trade in decline?

[Freakin]

all the cool kids are doing it. no, really.

[WarBus]

Reasons:
A way to get rich quick.
See others making loads of cash.
Your own boss.
Higher paying than a regular job.
Easier than a regular job.
No good legitimate jobs available.
Ego. Instill fear, respect from others.

Unfortunately, most don't realize that its no different than anything else. Only a select few actually become wealthy.

[celiboy]

I'm reading a book on the Mafia right now. They purposely dropped the price of heroin in the late 50's so that more people would get hooked on it. There were about 50,000 estimated users at that time and 10 years later that increased tenfold due to the price drop.

[Audi]

Demand is high.
Supply is high.

Sadly, I'm not.

[Mandor_TFL]

So perhaps they make it up in volume?


Read Freakonomics, He calculates that the on the corner crack dealer in the ghetto makes less than minimum wage. But when its the only job you can get, and there is a certain amount of prestige among peers, then it becomes desirable. Just food for thought.

- Mandor_TFL

[***]

[ QUOTE ]
so why isn't the drug trade in decline?

[/ QUOTE ]
Most drug dealers I know only do it as a second job and part of their lifestyle, so not making a kiling doesn't matter to them. If they are going to go out and party anyway, but they could make an extra $500/week selling pills or coke or whatever, they figure why not? If that drops to $400/week they aren't likely to stop.

Another reason - usually for people for whom drug dealing is their only, but not especially lucrative job, is that they can't handle any other job. A lot of them are anti social, have problems with authority, are lazy, and basically criminal stereotypes minus the violence. Selling drugs just means sitting around and getting high and not really having to work. Who cares about not making anything if you're not doing anything. Again, if their income drops they are more likely to make do than try anything like getting a real job.

A third reason it stays alive is escalation. People get into drugs and then they want more or cheaper, and one way to arrange that is to move up the ladder. You buy higher volumes for less money, but you have to get rid of the extra. I got busted by the cops with 92 tabs of acid in a similar scenario; if I wanted to buy good acid I had to buy at least 100 hits even though I probably didn't need that much.

I can think of several more reasons why drug dealing is still an attractive option to the people that do it, but I think that you are overestimating the costs of most of the following:
"government interference, violent competition and supplier monopolies all add overhead. there is also the opportunity cost of years lost to incarceration."

Most dealers are small time, and to them most of these things don't apply. The government isn't looking to bust the guy selling a half pound of weed a week; they want the guy that is growing hundreds of plants or the people buying from that grower.

Violent competition is also overstated by the media. Obviously it's a risk, but again it's more a concern for the bigger dealers. It's also somewhat a personal decision, because as long as you don't rip anyone off you are a lot less likely to be threatened. Again, a beating is unlikely over $1000, but I am acquainted with a guy who had his leg broken over $20k. Usually though the creditor would rather extort the debtor than attract official attention through violence.

Not only are these risks lower than most people guess, but I'm guessing that most drug dealers don't really consider them. They know that they might get arrested or beaten up one day, or that maybe they could be making more if their supplier wasn't such a prick, but they just live in the moment and don't worry about it.