Question - whats the diff between arbing and betting a soft line?

[Little_Luck]

What's the difference between arbing at a book and betting their soft line? I thought betting on their soft line is usually what sets up an arb to begin with?

VIP hasn't cut me off yet, but fear they soon will.



edited to break this out of the arbitrage posting thread.

The arb thread is only for posting arbitrages, not for asking questions.

this should have gone in its own thread, or even in the December Chatter thread.

-P

[beetman]

I mean just bet the soft line, don't bet the other side. Put another way, if you knew you could only win $20,000 at a book, would you rather win $20,000 at that book, or win 420,000 there but lose $17,000 to another book?

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
or win 420,000 there but lose $17,000 to another book?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet, a profit of $403,000. This is a no brainer.

(Okay, okay, I know the dollar sign is the "4" key.)

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean just bet the soft line, don't bet the other side. Put another way, if you knew you could only win $20,000 at a book, would you rather win $20,000 at that book, or win 420,000 there but lose $17,000 to another book?

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't accurate for many reasons.

[TomG]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I mean just bet the soft line, don't bet the other side. Put another way, if you knew you could only win $20,000 at a book, would you rather win $20,000 at that book, or win 420,000 there but lose $17,000 to another book?

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't accurate for many reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]
Would you please elaborate? Or at least answer this... Say we've just locked in an arb at +111 on a sharp book against -110 on the opposite side of a square book to guarantee a 0.23% ROI. Which book paid for our 0.23% return?

[Thremp]

TomG,

Time value of money. Think about it.

[beetman]

As someone figured out, that 420,000 was supposed to read $20,000 and I didn't notice the typo.

[dippydoo]

When you arb, you are actually are hedging against a soft line. Hedging, as discuss often in this forum, can, and often does, reduce your EV.

If you can identify which line is soft, arbing against reduced the vaule you get from the line. Basically, an arb
lets you give up EV to reduce variance.

This is why sharp sports bettors rarely look for arbs to make money. If/when they arb it is often to remove or reduce exposure on a bet that they no longer see as having value. Why? Because if they are really a "sharp" they can, and do, find and exploit soft lines.

[beetman]

Exactly. With the majority of the posted arbs here, you might as well write Pinnacle a check. And with some of the arbs where the limits are small, unless you have a small bankroll (in which case, you might be wasting your time arbing), your bankroll will often be able to make a limit bet at the soft line anyway.

Another poinr is that making large bets will make yourself more noticeable to the book, whereas making smaller ones might allow you to "fly under the radar."

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
Exactly. With the majority of the posted arbs here, you might as well write Pinnacle a check.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will say there's a ton of value in the 0c - 2c arbs that are constantly posted here for bonus clearing reasons.

I've been able to be lazier about grinding through bonuses thanks to people here posting small arbs. yeah, I'm almost always giving pinny the edge of the soft line, but I need to do so with the bonus clearing, and since I make most of my plays at Pinny picking at their lines all the time, i really don't mind giving them small edges on my bonus arbs / etc... kindof a way of paying them back [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]