Is 5K enough of a bankroll!?

[welzer777]

I was looking for some bankroll advice. I will spare every one the details of my playing abilities, however, after playing for about three years I think I am ready to take a "shot" at a 1/3 NL game with a max buy in of $300.

Assuming I am an "average" player do you think $5,000 is a large enough bankroll to test my abilities. I have read several places that risking only 5% of your bankroll on any given session should allow for a player to play "freely" or to not be playing on scared money. Is this accurate? If you do not think so what would you consider an apporiate bankroll for this game?

Yes, I have tested my abilities at lower limits both on-line and in casinos. This limit is, in my humble opinion, not beyond by ability. The main thing I am concerned about is the dreaded "cold deck" and I was wondering if 5K, at this limit, is enough to give my ability a "fair shot?"

[GiantBuddha]

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Assuming I am an "average" player do you think $5,000 is a large enough bankroll to test my abilities.

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If you are really an average player, you will eventually lose all your money to the rake. $5,000 seems like a lot of money to lose to find this out. If by average you mean "average winner in low limit game", who wants to see if he's good enough to beat a bigger game, then it really depends on what you mean by bankroll. If it means that you're willing to lose $5K before you call it quits, then yes, you have a chance of going broke even if you're a very good player. I think most players want about 20 buy ins.

The question really seems to be more about moving up than bankroll concerns. I'd rather take a shot with about 2K, and then drop down to a lower limit to win it back if my first foray didn't go well. Being unafraid to drop back down in limits can make you feel a lot more comfortable about trying to move up. I've personally bounced around a lot in my playing career.

For a brief, if unnecessary, autobiography, I started out playing in a very soft $.50/1 home game which I crushed. I started playing full ring game holdem on GPoker (there weren't any online games yet), but the transition to $5-10 was fairly difficult. I was lucky enough to run well in a $10-20 game, but it took a trip to CA to get the confidence I needed to jump into the $15-30 game regularly. I lived off of my poker money, so I didn't always have a solid bankroll for the bigger games, so I'd drop down in limits when I had to, and move up when I could. Where I played, the bigger games weren't always tougher than the smaller games.

Poker is a game which keeps you humble. Just don't fight that and you'll give yourself the best chance you can.

[welzer777]

Thanks for the advice. One particular point hit home. That being the "willing to lose 5k." This is precisely my point. You see, I am willing to lose exactly that amount but no more. I was trying to be humble when describing my situation but I am very confident that I can regularly beat this game. No limit is by far my best game. If my assessment is accurate what should I expect to win per hour. My "newbie" thinking tells me that I can make $500 per week or $100 per day (assuming an 8 hour day). The math here is elementary, however, achieving that win rate may be harder or more unrealistic than I anticipate!? Any more thoughts?

[JaredL]

Firstly, given that I don't know you at all, what evidence do you have to suggest you can beat this game? The way you answer this question will be pretty indicative of whether you are likely to be a winner in the game.

In general if you feel strongly that you are a winner, I would suggest playing shortstacked in the game for a few sessions. That way you'll get a solid feel for how the game is. At that point you can reassess. This way you get a stronger idea whether you belong in the game, have the chance to gain some experience at these stakes (in particular if you manage to turn your shortstack into a full buyin or more), and if it doesn't go well for whatever reason (running bad and/or not playing well enough), you are only going to be down a few bad sessions at a level you were playing at before.

[GiantBuddha]

What limits do you usually play, and what's your standard buy in? One way to move up more comfortably is to sit at a bigger game, but with the same buy in you previously used. If you double up quickly, great, now you're playing the bigger game, but with the same amount of 'your' money. If you don't double up, but you get a feel for the other players and the pace of the game, so you buy in for the rest. This way you can avoid tough decisions against players which you're unfamiliar with.

Don't put too much stock in your early results. They're going to feel more significant than they are. Don't get too depressed or cocky.

[welzer777]

I usually play in a 1/2 game and win there at about a 65% clip. I consider myself a very disciplined player. My standard buy in is 100 and I usually book on average a $25 dollar win in about a 2-3 hour span. I am wanting some advice on doing this full time and don't know what to expect if I would try this 5 days a week 8 hours per day. Again, lets "assume"(and yes I know what assume means [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]) that I will be at least top 3 or 4 at a 10 person table. What is considered a "realistic" take for a given week. I understand the concern and it is appreciated, however, I have put in my dues as they say or I would never even consider doing such a thing as a "profession"!! I started playing .10/.25 on-line and also .25/.50 home games. I have done exceedingly well in both arenas,therefore, I am looking to move up and test my abilities. I averaged about 70% win rate on line and usually would win 300 per month on a 25 dollar buy in playing about 60 hours per month. I have put in countless hours reading and thinking as recommended and am excited yet confused as to how to go about this "adventure."

[Gonso]

Welzer,

First, if you're planning on playing live, remember that you're going to have some extra overhead with the higher rake, and then tips on top of that. Also, 1/2 and 1/3-ish limit games play differently depending on whether they're online or not. I'm sure you're well aware of this, but just something to keep in mind.

Second, since these are relatively new waters for you, you might not be able to produce a positive winrate even though you think you should. If that's the case, that means that your bankroll is not safe no matter how much it is.

To expand on that a bit... the thing that gets tricky, and sometimes very frustrating, is that folks taking their first shot at any level often assume that they can start out winning or tearing it up. Since they've played a while, and read tons of books, it natural to assume you have some kind of edge because you did in some other environment (or a previous level). There is no justification whatesoever in estimating a winrate for a level you've never played at.

Also, the way you hear a lot of people on 2+2 talk, everyone here destroys the low limit games. That's obviously nonsense. I didn't for quite a while, and burned through a few BRs before I could hold my own even at 1/2 NL, and I played several games prior to NLHE.

Now, you're primarily asking a bankroll question. To give a mathematical answer you can calculate your needed BR. You'd need to know your actual winrate (you don't), your standard deviation (you could probably use the one from your prior limit as a placeholder - when in doubt, go high), and you need to choose an acceptable percent of risk of ruin.

Your BR is up to the task, if you have the ability to play the limit in question. It's certainly enough to tell you where you stand.

Forget the $100/day plans altogether, you just won't come anywhere near this. I'd just worry about beating the rake - that's a HUGE accomplishment. I completely understand the "I should have no problem making $______/hour, because..." mentality, but it never works that way.

[Gonso]

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What is considered a "realistic" take for a given week.

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More than likely, a marginal loss, at least at first.

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I understand the concern and it is appreciated, however, I have put in my dues as they say or I would never even consider doing such a thing as a "profession"!!

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You're making plans to go pro playing a game you've never played before... I think you're setting yourself up for failure by doing this.

[jipster]

Well my experience with live games is that they are easier!

By this, i do not mean that the standard is lower..... far from it compared to online low limits...

However, The 'feel' factor for me makes poker an easier game live....

I thinmk $5k is plenty IF you are a tight player.... if you are loose agressive then perhaps it might not be enough.

Sometimes you have to take a shot and see how it goes; just be sure you don't play scared.

Have a gamble, but be realistic, if the game is too tough, drop down.

Good luck

[binions]

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I usually play in a 1/2 game and win there at about a 65% clip. My standard buy in is 100 and I usually book on average a $25 dollar win in about a 2-3 hour span.


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Your win rate is fairly meager. At 1-2 NL online, good players average $25-30 an hour. While live play gets 50% of the hands an online table gets, good live players will make a similar amount per hour due to reads.