44 OTB HU again

[TomBrooks]

Hold'em FL 10/20 6h

BB is loose and passive 57/0/.6 over 100

Preflop: dealt to Hero[4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
3 folds, <font color="red"> Hero raises $20 </font>, BB calls 10

Flop: [7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 10 </font>, call

Turn: [7s 9h 5c][Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
checks, <font color="red"> Hero bets 20, </font> calls 20

River [7s 9h 5c Qc][Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
<font color="red"> bets 20 </font>, Hero folds (6:1)

[admiralfluff]

I call.

100 hands ain't much, and it smells like a tardonk.

[DCWildcat]

n/m

[admiralfluff]

I think one of my posting problems (apart from the drugs and alchohol) is that my thread replies tend to be rather curt?

Explaining myself:

Not much to say about preflop.

Against a likely LP player, flop bet is standard, as should be the turn follow. He will likely peel the flop with any 2, and is unlikely to blow us away with a bluff turn c/r.

When he calls the turn he could have any gutshot, or could be planning on showing down a UI A, so we're not in terrible shape checking behind the river.

This was my thinking in assuming that the only questionable street was the river.

His river donk is almost always a lower pair that feels stronger with the Q pairing, or a missed draw or random hand that tardonks the scare card. He is certainly loose enough to have a hand from either of these groups with comparable frequencies, but we simply don't know anything about his particular donking habits.

If his AF were truly .6, I think we could fold safely here. However, 100 hands isn't nearly enough to have any kind of confidence in this figure. If he were a 60 VPIP with a 1.2 AF, this river donk is a random dumb bluff more than often enough to call IMO. Given that we don't really know much about him, I tend to get to SD, but the fold probably isn't that bad.

[SparkyDog]

I'd just call and pay attention to what he shows down here. His stats only tell you that he's pretty bad, and bad isn't necessarily random. the queen pairing only adds to potential screwiness.

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
I call.

100 hands ain't much, and it smells like a tardonk.

[/ QUOTE ]

[TomBrooks]

OK. I thought this hand might have been worth a call when I reviewed it.

I've noticed I see more river bluff donks with busted draws than other times. I think it may be a psychological thing where the person was hoping to win the hand and when it doesn't come in, they get an extra big urge to try to steal it.

Has anyone else noticed that?

[Heisenb3rg]

Interesting patterns i've observed about loose-passives.

When they bluff, it is often when the board pairs and in the form of a donk. More often on the river.

Think back to when you were first playing hold em, you didnt know how to read hands. How else were you supposed to represent a card to bluff? You can't get inside their head with betting patterns, you simply find a card and represent it.

Because of their lack of hand reading they can however be "bluffing" with middle pair [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Catt]

For me this decision is all about perceptions -- what I have and what I'd like to project. I think there's a lot of merit in calling; I think there's a lot of merit in calling. To the extent I trust the 100-hand read, I'm more in favor of folding (perhaps obvious). The hands I'd played at the table and the guys I'm playing with (i.e., if I play with them often enough that I'm likely to be a reasonably known concept) would have a lot to do with what I think is a good decision.

As a sidenote, I'd consider a raise (as a pure bluff - not a value raise) with a better post-flop read (even over 100 hands) but not based on the information provided. Truly the bluff would be pretty rare and I'd like to think I'd do so only with a read that points to (i) might be less than horrible against this guy, and (ii) might have positive benefits with respect to others at the table if my raise gets called and I have to SD.

[danzasmack]

Tom,

I see this as a spot villain can rationalize a bluff. I call and expect to win a LOT because he really should only have a Q (very unlikely) or complete air. I would never fold here.

A very passive player also means a very bad player.