final week NFL - ATL @ PHL -7

[NajdorfDefense]

PHL is playing to win the division and the 3 seed, and host a first round game.

ATL may be playing for zippo if NYG wins, they are out. After losing 10-3 at home to CAR in a 'must-win' to a QB that had lost 17 in a row, PHL looks like a great pick laying only 7. With Vick nursing injury he won't want to get hurt in a meaningless game.

This game is NYEve about 830 kick-off, so the PHL fans will be out in force, drunk and rowdy.

I'm on this for 3 units at Pinny at -105 to -118 so far. I like betting PHL to host a playoff game vs a weak ATL that is out if NYG or GB wins.

[rjp]

Good luck. There are a few teams that will have little to play for if the Giants win.

[NajdorfDefense]

yeah, its -121/-7 at pinny now, -7.5 everywhere else, -8 at a few places

[NajdorfDefense]

This seems to be -7.5 or more everywhere now, I got down for 4 units at Pinny at prices listed above.

NFL -3.4 units ATS, 33-35-2
+9 units Wong Teasers.

[Troll_Inc]

I don't like any (NFC) team giving another 7 points this year. Plus everyone is going to be jumping on the Iggles' bandwagon and driving that side up.

[NajdorfDefense]

PHL just shredded NYG and DAL by 7+ on the road, no?
also, line has been driven up already, that is true.

[Troll_Inc]

[ QUOTE ]
PHL just shredded NYG and DAL by 7+ on the road, no?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and PHL plays better on the road. And weren't NYG and DAL favored in those games?

Also, PHL is due for a letdown.

Don't get me wrong, I think 7 is a fair number, but it seems like a 50/50 proposition to me, especially with the way the league is playing this year.

[NajdorfDefense]

So, your analysis is 'PHL is due for a letdown.'

Your analysis last week that "Eagles win 15% of the time" and "I don't like the Under" were spot on.

Thanks for stopping by, nh sir, I've been leveled good for ignoring your name.

[Troll_Inc]

[ QUOTE ]
So, your analysis is 'PHL is due for a letdown.'

Your analysis last week that "Eagles win 15% of the time" and "I don't like the Under" were spot on.

Thanks for stopping by, nh sir, I've been leveled good for ignoring your name.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've offered several legit points so far, so no need to get snippy. Would you like more?

The Eagles have not done well when favored big in their last 10 games.

11/19/2006 TEN L 13-31 -13
11/12/2006 WAS W 27-3 -7
10/29/2006 JAC L 6-13 -7.5
10/22/2006 @ TB L 21-23 -6

We don't have any information on how Atlanta plays when they are a big dog.

And last week my analysis was a little more complete than you were giving me credit for. I bet 5 units on the Eagles getting 7 points, the most I've bet all year. And EV analysis of my percentages shows that taking the points was better than taking the Eagles to win (I didn't see anyone disagree then). So if you are going to quote me, quote the whole thing.

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I don't think Westbrook is struggling, and he is certainly the Eagles best offensive player.

"Eagles RB Brian Westbrook rushed 19 times for 97 yards in Week 15 at the N.Y. Giants, including two touchdown runs of one and 28 yards each. He also caught five passes for an additional 40 yards. "

As far as the under, I don't like that with the Eagles run defense and Cowboys secondary, especially coupled with both offenses capable of putting up a lot of points. Also, together the teams are 16-7-5 combined O/U this year.

I do like the Eagles +7. As a general rule this year, it seems like no NFC team should be giving another team 7 points. Additionally point to a closer game I think are: rivalry, both teams in playoff hunt, Eagles on a mini-roll, and Romo not as hot last few games.

I'd say Eagles win this game 15-20% of the time, and lose by 7 or less 50% of time. I just don't see Dallas winning by a big score more than 30% of the time. So to me, taking the Eagles and the 7 pts is an easy pick.

[love2puck14]

line is at -9 now on pinny (+111), ML is -344...