Another overbet hand

[Kilillan]

I just played this one. Villain is Troll Pie. He runs at 26/20/7

I'm running much LAGier than normal at about 35/30

He's seen me check behind AKo on low flops on 3 seperate occasions. Also he's seen me check behind TPGK on the flop.

Also, last time he lead into me for 22 he had a set of 8s. That was a couple hands before this.
Goot?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $274.20
UTG+1: $78
Hero: $482.70
Button: $536.50
SB: $208.20
BB: $414

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $14</font>, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($30, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $22</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $66</font>, BB calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($162, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero is all-in $402.7 (333 to villain)</font>

[tufat23]

i've been thinking about this a bit and have concluded i dunno what otehr hands we bet like this for balance

in this hand you suddenly have so many outs i'd be inclined to check

[ursine cotcher]

I'm not a huge fan.

From his position I find it hard to put you on anything massive here, so tbh I call light(ish) against you. I don't think you're going to balance this out well enough by playing your monsters in a similar fashion enough of the time.

Against this opponent when you've been lagging it up, I think checking &gt; this.

You get called, yeah?

[DJ Sensei]

dont like it. too high a price to chase off his draws and weak kings, when you've got 124124 outs and may well be good.

[Kilillan]

[ QUOTE ]
dont like it. too high a price to chase off his draws and weak kings, when you've got 124124 outs and may well be good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious, what % do you think he calls with QK? I thought given my image he's very likely to call a PSB with TPGK on both streets. And I feel his range is weighted more torwards TPGK hands, maybe AT

[ursine cotcher]

You play this just like an aggressive QJ. QJd especially after turn. I call you here most of the time with KQ (unless I haven't seen you pull this before in which case I probably pussy it and wait till I grow some balls and you try it again). I think KQ is about his minimum holding here which is why I think the push is a bad move in the first place, regardless.

[bruin]

i really dont like this hand.

I dont like the flop raise; I'd much rather just call to keep the size of the pot smaller.

I don't get the turn push. You'r never getting called by worse hands, and better hands are looking u up a LOT. Also, u have soo many outs... check and take the free card that he's giving you!

[jmxthievez]

I'd rather make this type of heavy play on the flop with many outs. On the turn, I think I'd just call or check to draw rather than get fancy.

[Kilillan]

I doubt my hand has showdown value here, unless he has exactly QJ.
He's never seen me overbet before, and I think he can't call this bet without TPTK+. And he would've reraised preflop with AK. I also think a set is a small part of his range given the flop action.
I'm not sure if my Ts or Qs are clean outs and I'm not sure if I'd get paid if I did hit my outs.

So I bet all my money.

Is my thinking process wrong here?

[List]

Given that he called your flop raise, and you're playing lag, and your turn overbet is suspicious, it's very likely that if he called your flop raise with top pair+, he's calling your turn overbet. Given that he's likely to pay you off with some sort of made hand, you can often make good money here when you hit your flush on the river.

If you're trying to fold top pair here, I'd rather you make a less suspicious pot sized turn bet.