Calculating EV of a Resteal, including Fold Equity, at a Final Table.

[RonFezBuddy]

Hello,

Sorry, if this belongs in probability forum but I thought the dynamics tourney stage, reads and fold equity made it more appropriate for MTT strategy.

I would like to evaluate this hand from my perspective and whether this is a good time to push. I'll walk you through the range I assigned the chip leader and the calculations I did after the hand in analyzing this on my own. This is my first attempt at analyzing a hand in this manner and I would love hear your opinions on my play and analysis here.

This was a 45 person $10 tourney on Full Tilt. There are four of us left and I am only a few chips behind the chip leader. We've been at the table together for about 20 hands. The only thing he's seen me do is double up around 10 hands ago when JJ > 66.

Full Tilt Poker Game #1470291789: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (10534663), Table 3 - 500/1000 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:54:10 ET - 2006/12/25
Seat 2: Hero (22,590)
Seat 4: UTG (8,155)
Seat 5: UTG+1 (12,930)
Seat 9: Villian(23,825)
Villian posts the small blind of 500
Hero posts the big blind of 1,000
[
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
UGT folds
UTG+1 folds
Villian raises to 3,000

When the chip leader raises from the SB, i think I have a chance to resteal here. Tracking during this tournament in Pokeroffice had him at 24% VPIP and 17% PFR, so I put a blind steal in his toolbox and I have a stack that should scare him. If things go wrong and he calls with a strong hand I should have a shot (even if small) to win.

Pokerstove Calcuations
Villian Ranges: 22+,AJs-A8s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo-A8o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo = 62.44%
Hero: K7o = 37.56%

EV Calculation w/o Fold Equity
-22,590(.6748) + 22,590(.3251) = -5620.39

Obviously, by itself this is a very unprofitable strategy. But I thought perhaps I can get him to fold a lot of the hands from the calculation above since his raising range was very wide.

I think he folds everything thing to a push, except for JJ+,AQs+,AQo+. These are about 1/4 of the hands in his raising range. So my thinking is that I should do a calcuation for the range above and assign it 1/4 of the value in the EV calcuation and do a calcuation for the 4k in chips i pick up if he folds. Is this the right way to do this?

Pokerstove Calcuations
Villian Ranges: JJ+,AQs+,AQo+ = 73.91%
Hero: K7o = 26.09%

EV Calculation w/ Fold Equity
He Calls: -22,590(.7391) + 22,590(.2609) = -10802.538
He Folds: + 4000

He calls 25% of the time and folds 75% of the time.

EV = -10802.538(.25) + 4000 (.75) = 299.36

If my ranges and assumptions are correct this becomes +EV. I pushed. Results will come later.

Key Questions

1. Is the range I assigned consistent with what you would typically assign a chip leader with characteristics I outlined above.

2. Did approach the EV calculations correctly?

3. Am I being to generous in fold % being 75%?

Thanks for your input.

[RetiredAt22]

With all this math i wish i didnt take so many bathroom breaks in HS stats class... that being said, i think your best play is to raise to 9-12 bbs, and C-bet any flop if he calls.

i think putting your whole stack at risk isnt smart considering the shortstacks M is under 6.

[RonFezBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]
...i think your best play is to raise to 9-12 bbs, and C-bet any flop if he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think the 9-12 bbs raise is optimal or would you just fold and look for a better spot?