OVERBETTING DRAWS PROFITABLE?

Kilillan · #1 12-25-2006, 11:54 AM

Is it profitable to make huge overbets with draws?

I've seen grimstarr and zeebo do it but no one else. Is it better than simply betting 2/3 pot?

CO is Jamougha and button is huge 71/1 calling station donk. GOot?
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $251.30
UTG+1: $824.80
CO: $400
Button: $761.80
SB: $372
Hero: $398

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, CO raises to $14, Button calls, SB folds, Hero raises to $58, CO folds, Button calls.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($132, 2 players)
Hero is all-in $340

don't remember playing this one a few months ago I think

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $457.35
CO: $201.75
Button: $252.30
Hero: $271.20
BB: $345.95

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, CO raises to $7, Button folds, Hero raises to $25, BB folds, CO calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($52, 2 players)
Hero bets $200

This was earlier today and I had a little to drink, I still think it's sexy though
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $318.40
UTG+1: $397.90
Hero: $400
Button: $510
SB: $1847.80
BB: $538.60

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, Hero raises to $14, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($30, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $22, BB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($74, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero is all-in $363

gimmetheloot · #2 12-25-2006, 12:02 PM

Personally, I never do this.

And TBH, I hate it, in all of these hands.

In hand one: If he calls this, he was calling AFTER you hit too. Hes got a hand, and a T or a club isnt very scary in a RR pot. Really.

Hand 2: why not c/shove? more dead money and a ton of FE there, plus u can pot shove on turn/river if you hit. I see no need for this.

Hand 3: lol, just no. if a Q was high card on board, ok, but after getting c/c on the flop, I dont like this one bit.

I hope you hit on these sir.

Kilillan · #3 12-25-2006, 12:03 PM

I figure if I bet a lot of money they'll fold more? no?

gimmetheloot · #4 12-25-2006, 12:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I figure if I bet a lot of money they'll fold more? no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Kill, I only see him folding a hand that wouldnt be folded for a 2/3 bet in these hands on hand 3, where he might lay down AK/AJ or something.

I think you have the same amount of FE + much more dead money using my lines. If you disagree, let me know.

Kilillan · #5 12-25-2006, 12:15 PM

well in hand 1 he'd call with any pair and any draw for a normal bet. So I pushed.

hand 2 I think if he folds a couple overpairs a certain % of the time the play becomes profitable?

hand 3 I figured he needed 2 pair+ to call, so I bet all my mobney

Nielsio · #6 12-25-2006, 12:18 PM

Kilililian posts not one hand, but multiple!!! wtf must be Christmas or something.

gimmetheloot · #7 12-25-2006, 12:20 PM

hand 1, what draw can he have? If hes calling a pair on the flop sir, to an 85$ bet, hes calling a shove, a lot of the time, IMO.
I am assuming you double barrel a fair amount, and floating in a RR pot is probably not something he does often anyway, being a donk.

hand 2: I think if you check, he fires and you shove and he folds a high percentage of the time, with TT/JJ...and a ton more dead money in the pot. If you check, he checks, I think he folds to a turn bet a ton. If he doesnt, you have 12+ outs heading to the river and can make a decision then.

hand 3, yeah, i think maybe u can get him off of AK/AJ here. I dont hate this one nearly as much as the other 2.

Dan Bitel · #8 12-25-2006, 01:42 PM

kil,

1 and 2 are OK

I really dont like 3 tho

gimmetheloot · #9 12-25-2006, 01:43 PM

whoops was gonna respond, then wasnt, but clicked post anyway. [censored] me.

tufat23 · #10 12-25-2006, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
kil,

1 and 2 are OK

I really dont like 3 tho

[/ QUOTE ]

btw. shove TPTK as well for balance