10/20 Turn Play

[HLS2k6]

Live 10/20.

Hero is CO with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB is a regular, but just sat down and I haven't played with him before. Very aggressive and experienced is my only read.

BB is solid, fairly TAG.

MP1 is a donk. Passive and playing too many hands.

Button is playing slightly too many hands and playing them too far, but is nowhere near as bad as MP1. Not especially passive, despite the above read.

I have been playing tight and aggressive, but am stuck. I feel like 1 or 2 players have taken shots at me on and succeeded, a trend I am quite anxious to reverse.

Preflop:

MP1 limps. Hero raises. Button calls 2 cold, SB, BB and MP1 call.

Flop:

10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, SB 3-bets, BB caps, all call.

I realize I could be drawing very thin here, but there's a ton of money in the pot and I've been folding too much.

SB is most likely ahead, but I have no read other than super-aggro.

BB's call/cap reaks of value betting a draw given the size of the field.

To me, this makes this a fairly easy call even though it came back to me 2 cold. Anyone disagree?

Turn:

10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, hero ???

I'm clueless as to whether this should be a check or bet. Flop action indicated I was way behind. But if I'm not, giving a free card here could be an absolute disaster. Thoughts?

[ILOVEPOKER929]

Preflop: Standard

Flop: When I was reading your post, the second I saw you raise the flop I cringed. This is a very bad flop raise IMO. This is not a good board to raise the flop with 3 people committed. The value of your hand is going to change so much by the turn that the last thing you want to do is invest any more on the flop than you have to. This is a classic wait and see situation. If the flop came out Qc8c3d, in this same situation, by all means go ahead and pump it up, but not on the flop in your hand. Youre too likely to be trailing, and even if you are ahead now, there are about 100 different turn cards that will either kill your hand or demote your hand to a simple draw with one card to come.

Once you raise and the BB caps, its all over, just fold now. Someone is beating you, and youre probably drawing close to dead, and even if I'm wrong and youre somehow ahead on the flop, you are a strong underdog to be ahead by the river. So get the hell out now and go get some refreshments or something.

EDIT: I made a classic mistake in my analysis of your flop play. I didnt take into account the significance of the pot size after you raised the flop. Once you raised the flop and the action came back to you, you were getting exactly 14-1 to call basically closing the action assuming theres no 5 bet cap. This means you probably have enough to call here with your backdoor straight outs, backdoor flush outs/spiking a king on the turn outs, and you may somehow be ahead here 2% of the time or something. So nevermind about folding the flop. I will leave what I orginally wrote though cuz it conveys what I want to do, but the pot size dictates that folding is not the proper course.

TURN: Ok you called the cap on the flop so lets move on. Everybody checks to you, should you bet? This pot is huge, if theres any chance you have the best hand you certainly wouldnt want to give a free card to this field. Seems like theres a decent incentive to bet. Im not so sure though. We now know that you have the BB and MP beat. The question is will you have the BTN and the SB beat often enough to justify this turn bet. Did the SB simply whiff on a turn check/raise attempt? Is the BTN slowplaying a monster or does he have 93s and just trying to hit? These questions are impossible to answer, but theres one thing we do know. You said that the SB was super-aggressive. Wouldnt that mean that hands like AJ,QJ,J9,J8,Ac8c,Ac9c could all be in his range? I would think so. Although I still think theres a great chance youre losing to the SB, theres a small yet important chance youre ahead of the SB. Becuz this pot is so huge, you only need a small chance that youre in the lead to justify this turn bet, so given your read on the SB, I would bet the turn. If you bet and the SB ends up check/raising you, this pot is so big that you'll probably have to call on the sole hopes that the SB has a straight and you hit one of your 4 outs to a boat. Either way I would bet the turn and close my eyes.

[iggymcfly]

I think the flop raise is fine. With a lot of loose opponents like this, I like doing what I can to knock out players if I think there's a decent chance I'm ahead. After BB caps, there's a pretty good chance we're behind, but I wouldn't be confident enough to fold it.

After the turn we're now ahead of J8, and if it's checked to us, I think we have to bet. There's a lot of spots where people could have been value raising draws, and I think we need to maximize our chances of winning this large pot.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop raise is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I promise you this flop raise is terrible.

[Hielko]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop raise is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I promise you this flop raise is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? I doubt that it is a bad raise. There are not a lot of very bad turn cards that can come. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] will give you a draw to the 2nd nut flush, a Q will give you an open ended and even an Ace or 9 will give you a gutshot. So your equity isn't going to change an extreme amount on the turn. On the flop you have an overpair and no reason to believe it isn't the best hand (of course things change after the cap).

[Carmine]

Having your hand with that flop(and with your position to the action) should make you want to vomit not raise. When you are ahead(and I think that is fairly often) it's not by much and your really hoping everyone is holding each others outs. As 929 mentioned that turn card is going to be a big pivot point in this hand.

Your other dilemma is your position to the action. I think we need a term for this. Your usually good late position is hampering you from protecting your hand. Much like being reverse dominated. Thats what makes the flop raise bad. Your just inflating the pot to give the draws more reason to see the river.

As far as weather you should bet this turn. I agree that BB is playing like a draw, but you must ask why SB (a good player by your definition) lead out rather than try to protect his hand in his position. This means either monster hand or big draw IMO (anyone disagree here). Wouldn't you try and C/R AJ if in SB position? Does a good player call PF with Q9s in poor position?

If I was in your position on the turn I would conclude that I am ahead of this field with the exception of SB which I would asses at 50/50. I'm throwing a bet out there

[benwood]

Interesting hand.Your analysis makes me relize that I don't consider laying back for the turn enough on a hand containing a lot of potential draws like this one.

With this said,I still think that the KK has a little better chance than you have described.An aggressive SB may check-raise with many hands containing the Qc,for instance,& BB may have Ac & another club or similar.If nobody has a 10 in his hand,there's a reasonable chance that the KK is good on the turn.

At this point,I really don't know whether the raise or the call is best on the flop & would love to see some more debate on this.

Thanks guys.Ben.

(I tried to make the heading say ILOVE POKER929 instead of Carmine,but apparently I don't know how to do this.Sorry.)

[Nate.]

Interesting spot. First I'll note that the flop raise isn't necessarily bad. If there's value there, and for some reason (big-street passivity, usually) it won't be there on the turn, and you can't often protect your hand on the turn very well, and so forth, then raise the flop. KK is, like everything else, just a good drawing hand, and there are reasons to pump those on the flop.

Once it comes back to you capped, get annoyed but given these descriptions I'd call. Preflop action means that you are drawing very live against, or ahead of, many of the hands that pump here.

On the turn I generally bet here. The biggest problem is trapping myself into calling a raise when near-dead, and I know my opponents well enough to give them the chance to put me in a tough spot. If some of these guys are chronic turn slowplayers, then go ahead and check, but let them make correct laydowns you want them to, or "good laydowns" that aren't, or (more likely) calls with hands that you beat. Against the players I'm imagining, I bet and shut down.

--Nate

[jetfish]

I don't like the flop raise at all.
Once you get to the turn, you're probably stuck betting, which sucks, because if you get raised, you're stuck calling and looking for a miracle.

[Nate.]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the flop raise at all.
Once you get to the turn, you're probably stuck betting, which sucks, because if you get raised, you're stuck calling and looking for a miracle.

[/ QUOTE ]

My default play isn't to bet but again, there are lineups to do it against.

There's no law that says you have to call the turn if raised. You don't have the price to call for two or fewer outs and you shouldn't be afraid to make that read. If you can't do that and aren't likely to make anything fold and aren't getting enough value, then check -- there's no law against that either. But I think it's a bet.

--Nate