JJ, make a thin value bet?

DCWildcat · #1 12-25-2006, 12:16 AM

Full Til .5/1 'cuz I run bad. I have <20 hands on both villains.

J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in HJ.

I raise, CO calls, BB calls

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet, CO folds, BB calls

Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB donks. I call.

I call because donks are gay, and there are a bunch of draws he could've picked up here. I don't raise 'cause this is fairly often a K. I intend to call down from here.

River: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks. Can I bet to pick up a call from busted FD/SD draws & foldin the rare K , or am I only getting called by hands that beat me?

BostonMetro · #2 12-25-2006, 12:35 AM

I think he has kings more often than all smaller pairs combined so check behind.

jstill · #3 12-25-2006, 01:21 AM

if the river was any other card but the A and he had checked Id likely valuebet it all day (maybe not a club but i think i would) but here i think the chances hes ck calling a K with the combined effect of the A falling maybe helping him getting away from smaller pairs (ones I could see him ck calling on a different river for sure) make ur bet getting called earn money less than 50% of the time id assume.

I dont think the potential value of folding out a better hand is worth considering much if hes got a K hes calling, the donk then ck make me tempted to bet but i think i pass it up cuz it may be too thin or -EV, a lot of the worse hands he donked on the turn cant call a river bet now (missed draws).

LuckyLucky · #4 12-25-2006, 01:22 AM

I check behind as well. If you intend to call down you should be happy that he checked right? The A is quite a good card for you in terms of saving a bet. So save it.

Leader · #5 12-25-2006, 01:53 AM

I would bet. His play is indicative of a weak pair of some kind. Either a small K or a lower pair. So you're not going to win every time you bet, but more the 50% I think. Fold to the rare raise.

Edit: I raise the turn here sometimes too. Probably not that great vs. an unknown though.