Top two and NFD, can I ever call this?

[CopTHIS]

I need 34.5% in the hand to break even and wanted to call. Is there any chance UTG+1 is behind enough to call? I've not looked at many numbers but he doesn't need to be behind that much for a call to be OK. Saying that, I couldn't see how he could not be ahead. He was about 30/17/5 but didn't seem that aggressive, with the odd underbet (so I'm thinking marginal donk tendancies but not much). I hadn't seen one big move at all, just the odd steal here and there. The shortie was a little bit donkish with leads but didn't get to showndown often.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $933.85
UTG+1: $628
CO: $546.80
Button: $783.21
SB: $1076.10
BB: $354.66

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $21</font>, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($66, 3 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $45</font>, UTG+1 calls, BB calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($201, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $78</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises all-in $562</font>, BB folds, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $484 returned to UTG+1.

Results:
Final pot: $435

[recallme]

USe Pokerstove and you know it!

[luegofuego]

u are basically never ahead here (&lt;5%) but u have 15 outs so it's just math. i can't do math.

[soah]

You do not have 15 outs.

[CopTHIS]

[ QUOTE ]
USe Pokerstove and you know it!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not getting odds of catching up when I am behind (and some outs are taken if he has the flush, as he almost always will). The question is, will he ever have a worse made hand and make this play? He was kinda odd at times so maybe it's closer than it looks.

[oyvindgee]

I really doubt I could make that fold at the table, but thinking about it now, I can't for the life of me put you ahead often enough to call profitably. Folding is probably correct, calling would be a small mistake though.

[soah]

I agree.