20-40 live turn decision

[mongidig]

It is a live 9 handed 20-40 game with a cap at 4 bets. I have a tight image.

UTG limps(This is his first orbit no good reads), MP limps, LP limps, and I call on the button with KdJc, SB raises(He is fairly aggressive preflop. I have seen him raise with as little as K9s from the blinds so he has a pretty large range. He plays very aggressively postflop and loves to ram and jam draws on the flop. If he raises on turn he usually has a big hand.), The BB calls(seems pretty straightforward plays decently but not anything special)and everyone else calls.

The flop: QhTs9h

Sb checks, BB bets, UTG raises, folded to me and I reraise, SB thinks for a little while and calls as does everyone else.

The turn: QhTs9hTc

Sb checks, BB bets, UTG raises, What is my play?

[gamblore99]

preflop: I raise here
flop: I like your 3bet
turn: I think he would have gone for a check 3bet if he had something really powerful. I think the best thing to do is 3bet, and if it comes back capped fold, but I really don't want to fold in this giant pot. Second choice would be to call down.

[Hielko]

LOL @ 3bet/fold line...

[benwood]

I would not consider raising p/f with this weak hand.UTG should have you dominated if his standards are reasonable.

IMO,you will win this pot only a small percentage of the time between the times that you are already beaten & the times that you will be drawn out on.This may seem like a big laydown considering the pot size,but you could easily put in a lot of big bets with a dead hand if you continue.

[afish]

First of all, I agree with the preflop limp. You don't want to build big pots with KJo.

I agree with playing your straight fast on this highly coordinated flop.

I'd fold the turn. You're going to be looking at a boat 80% of the time, and the pot could be three-bet behind you. Even if one of your opponents isn't already full, they could draw out on the river.

[Nate.]

[ QUOTE ]
I would not consider raising p/f with this weak hand.UTG should have you dominated if his standards are reasonable.

IMO,you will win this pot only a small percentage of the time between the times that you are already beaten & the times that you will be drawn out on.This may seem like a big laydown considering the pot size,but you could easily put in a lot of big bets with a dead hand if you continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't raise preflop, but domination by UTG is one of the last reasons why. Medium-strengh Broadway hands are in fact sometimes good to isolate early limpers with because of their liveness (many players, including most strong ones, do not generally limp high-card hands UTG).

Without reads, call down. With reads, do what the reads tell you to. Many UTGs will never be able to beat a straight here except with QTs or the rare T9s. It would help to know how the BB plays but it might be noted that many kinds of good players and bad players will often bet here not beating a straight.

So I'll recommend calling down. I don't see much benefit to a threebet unless there's a lot of value there (and from the tone and content of the OP I doubt that's the case). If it's two more bets to you at any point you can almost always fold.

--Nate

[Dov]

The real question is what does UTG have?

I think his range at this point is AA-TT, ATs (maybe but unlikely), AQ, AK, KQ, KJs

The fact of the matter is that you are beating the hell out of most of this range.

Since the SB can have anything including JTs, I think I like 3 betting the turn and calling down if it gets capped.

I think your equity here is pretty large. I think that you'll see a pair+str8 draw or 2 pair go nuts here much more often than a FH.

Dov

[Nate.]

[ QUOTE ]
The real question is what does UTG have?

I think his range at this point is AA-TT, ATs (maybe but unlikely), AQ, AK, KQ, KJs

The fact of the matter is that you are beating the hell out of most of this range.

Since the SB can have anything including JTs, I think I like 3 betting the turn and calling down if it gets capped.

I think your equity here is pretty large. I think that you'll see a pair+str8 draw or 2 pair go nuts here much more often than a FH.

Dov

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not one to cling desperately to preflop reads, but so few UTGs have ranges that include those hands with high frequencies.

--Nate

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
The real question is what does UTG have?


[/ QUOTE ]

99 and JT look like the most likely hands to me.

[DUI]

Without a read on the UTG, I'd be forced to call down on turn and river unless BB pops it one more time. I am inclined to believe he's sitting large on a full, though.

DUI