QTo, blind steal vs TAG and calling station. Stars 2/4

Dagger78 · #1 12-21-2006, 06:54 PM

Stars 2/4 6-max.]

TAG villian is 24/16/2 over 700 hands. Seems solid and is certainly capable of restealing with marginal hands.

BB is a total calling station and the TAG should know this, as we've both been at the table for at least 100 hands. he's 60/3/.5 over 100 hands. The usual, no concern for odds, calling any pair, any draw, etc.... regardless of the number of bets to call.

The other two at the table are tagish, over smaller samples.

After that background here's the hand.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

Thoughts on any street are appreciated.

Scotch78 · #2 12-21-2006, 06:58 PM

What were you hoping to achieve with the turn donk? I much prefer a check-raise here.

Scott

gehrig · #3 12-21-2006, 07:01 PM

c/c flop c/c turn fold river if button bets 3ways

showing any aggression doesnt do anything here ur hand isnt strong and u cant protect it

Dagger78 · #4 12-21-2006, 07:04 PM

I'd really rather not see the turn checked through if the button has some type of draw. I've seen him 3 bet me here before with A9, A8 type hands, and smaller pockets are getting checked. While the turn didn't help my hand necessarily, it probably didn't hurt it either. While I know I can't really protect my hand here, since the button will call with most draws, I rather not give the free card to both of them with this vulnerable hand.

River fold ok?

Scotch78 · #5 12-21-2006, 07:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
showing any aggression doesnt do anything here ur hand isnt strong and u cant protect it

[/ QUOTE ]

HU, I agree, but as long as the calling station sticks around, I think there's value in check-raising this turn. I favor check-raising over check-calling by a small margin, and check-calling over donk betting by a significant margin.

Scott

ILOVEPOKER929 · #6 12-21-2006, 07:11 PM

I like youre play every street until the river. I like preflop, I like just calling the flop, and I like the turn donk.

River: Before I can even talk about your check/fold line, why are you not betting? The Tag's most likely hand when he calls the turn is AK,AQ,KQ IMO. So theres a great chance you have the tag beat. Chances are the tag is just gonna fold this hand to your river bet, but the superfish will call you with all kinds of garbage, so theres plenty of value in a river bet given the action that has transpired so far.

Now about your check/fold play. First of all lets get one thing out of the way. This is not an overcalling situation on the river, this is a calling situation. The fact That the superfish calls means nothing to me cuz im pretty sure you have him beat. The question is, will the tag bet a lesser hand than yours on the river against two players on the river after the action that has occurred so far? If hes truly solid the answer is no. I certainly dont think the tag is dumb enough to bluff here but will he value bet a hand like 77 figuring that your just giving up on a bluff and the fish will call with Ace high or king high. I'm not sure. My instinct says that the tag is not bluffing and will not bet a hand like 66-99. However you are getting 11-1 to call, and im pretty sure you have the superfish beat, so I would still call here. Who knows maybe the tag has a hand like T9s or maybe the tag is not as good as you think he is and hes making a mistake. Getting 11-1 is enough for me to call and hope.

BTW: I think the Tag has Quads becuz thats the only hand I could have if I were the villain. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Scotch78 · #7 12-21-2006, 07:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd really rather not see the turn checked through if the button has some type of draw. I've seen him 3 bet me here before with A9, A8 type hands, and smaller pockets are getting checked. While the turn didn't help my hand necessarily, it probably didn't hurt it either. While I know I can't really protect my hand here, since the button will call with most draws, I rather not give the free card to both of them with this vulnerable hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you have a specific read that he will check behind, I think your TAG will usually fire again with medium pocket pairs and strong aces.

To simplify my thinking here, you are close enough to even money with the TAG, and we have so little information on him, that we can't calculate your EV against him accurately enough to compare alternatives. However, we can improve our EV against the calling station.

[ QUOTE ]
River fold ok?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely not.

Scott

ILOVEPOKER929 · #8 12-21-2006, 07:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd really rather not see the turn checked through if the button has some type of draw. I've seen him 3 bet me here before with A9, A8 type hands, and smaller pockets are getting checked. While the turn didn't help my hand necessarily, it probably didn't hurt it either. While I know I can't really protect my hand here, since the button will call with most draws, I rather not give the free card to both of them with this vulnerable hand.

River fold ok?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats why I love the turn donk. A good tag will be checking behind alot of lesser hands here after getting called in two places on the flop. The last thing you want to do is lose any bets from the fish when your hand is best, which is why it is so important to retake the initiative with your turn donk.

Also, if you think the tag can fold a hand like QQ-AA,AT,KTs, if you run a protected pot value/bluff check/raise on the turn, then you should strongly consider this line as well. In theory this is the perfect spot to run such a play.

Scotch78 · #9 12-21-2006, 07:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thats why I love the turn donk. A good tag will be checking behind alot of lesser hands here after getting called in two places on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. A good TAG should be betting 66+ and AQ+ here. HU against the fish this turn would be a super easy bet for him, and the hero was getting 11-1 on his flop call, on about as drawy of a board as you can get.

Scott

Oink · #10 12-21-2006, 07:22 PM

Given the turn action this is a river valuebet for me.