(PS $2/$4) : River Raise

[Scotch78]

The CO and button look like TAGs so far, and have pretty much been staying out of my way. The SB seems like your average Joe.

Villain is 71/13/47/1.1/3.3/6.3 after 72 hands (VP$IP/PFR/WSD/AF-F/AF-T/AF-R). I've seen him take this flop and turn line twice before. Once he was bluffing (and fired again on the river-HU against me), the other time he had turned a straight-not HU or against me. Overall he seems like a deceptive player (slowplaying bigger hands, taking shots if opponents look weak, betting/raising and sometimes not making it to showdown despite his looseness, etc.)

I had contemplated 3-betting the turn, and am still not sure if that would have been better, but thought it was an easy raise once the river paired. Thoughts?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB (LAG) calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
LAG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, LAG calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
LAG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">LAG raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">LAG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

Scott

[lank4ever]

At 5/10 I think LAGs like this can fold on the river often enough to make this unprofitable because we have to call a 3 bet.

If it were as simple as we always get an extra bet when ahead and always lose an extra 2 when behind it would be an easy raise I think. It depends on how often he will call with 3s 5s and A high.

This is a very interesting hand to put into the riverplay spreadsheet from mid high. Post the results and assumptions you make if you go that route.

BTW I really don't like a turn 3 bet because you said he was willing to continue bluffing on the river, which is almost always true against LAGs

[NL__Fool]

If the lag is capable of laying down a hand then I like this line, otherwide it sucks.

Only time to use this line is if the Lag will calldown any piece even to a strong river raise

The reason being is against a lag who can fold you are risking 2 bets to win 1 everytime. By calling you are risking 1 BB to get 1 BB And if you are uncapable of folding to a 3 bet then you just risked 3 bets to win 1.

Calling this river is the best play i believe

[Scotch78]

Lank and NL,

Looking at your comments, I get the feeling that I wasn't clear enough in my read. When I said that he occasionally folds after showing aggression, I was implying only that he's doing some (semi-)bluffing. With a VP$IP of 71% and a WSD of 47%, I do not think this guy is folding any pair for one more bet on the river.

Also, for Lank, did you misread the stakes, or were saying that I should post this as if it were a $5/$10 hand?

Scott

[Nick C]

I probably would just call. Partly this is because I just don't want to let the LAG get a river bet/3-bet in if he's really got a queen (or better).

It sounds like you'll be winning the hand more often than not, though.

[silkyslim]

meh i call the river. dont want to get 3 boned by trips