Nut flush, pair on board

[LinusKS]

Paradise 2/4, from memory. (There's $100 10x there, fyi.)

A9s, on the button. One limper.

I raise, bb calls, limper calls.

Flop: AoTs5s.

Checked to me, I bet. Both call.

Turn: 5o.

Checked to me, I bet, both call.

River: 4s.

Checked to me, I bet. BB check-raises. MP calls two cold.

Hero...?

Is it safe to assume the bb made the non-nut flush, and 3-bet?

Sorry, no reads.

[Mattymar]

You have to 3-bet. The odds that he has a boat are low. He could have a lower flush or a hand like 56. You certainly need to put in the extra raise and if he has a boat then oh well that's poker.

EDIT: Also keep in mind that you have the cold-caller along for the ride so you want to get some more money out of him as well as you almost definitely have him beat.

[Abbaddabba]

3bet.

You are always ahead of MP, and he'll almost never fold to one more bet (rarely fold to 2).

You're ahead of the BB more often than not too. You would have heard from a full house earlier. This is a lower flush more often than it is someone who filled up.


Given that you are going to get overcalls from MP and even capped from worse hands by the BB once in a while, you probably only have to think you're good against the BB 1/3 times to justify the 3bet. I think you're realistically ahead of him closer to 2/3rds of the time, if not more.

[LinusKS]

I agree. Thank you.