Hate. The. Minraise.

epdaws · #1 02-04-2006, 06:09 PM

PP NL 100, 6-max

Hero is CO with $102
Villain is SB with $99

Reads: Villain is 66/6/0.45 after about 75 hands. He loves to see flops, but he has not played many big pots.

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

One limper, Hero raises to $5, SB calls, limper calls.

Flop: ($15) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $11, SB calls, MP folds.

Turn: ($37) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks, Hero bets $25, SB min-raises to $50. Push? Call and see river? Other?

snitty · #2 02-04-2006, 06:14 PM

9 times out of 10 he'll have a set or the 10-9, unless you have a really good read, against someone that passive after the flop I'd drop the hand.

Ness · #3 02-04-2006, 06:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
9 times out of 10 he'll have a set or the 10-9, unless you have a really good read, against someone that passive after the flop I'd drop the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with snitty--one pair is no good here.

Kyriefurro · #4 02-04-2006, 06:23 PM

If a villain with 0.45 post-flop AF is raising the turn after all the aggression you've shown, he's either got a set or he hit his straight. Run while you can lol.

Jamougha · #5 02-04-2006, 06:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Villain is 66/6/0.45 after about 75 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dump it...

epdaws · #6 02-04-2006, 06:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Villain is 66/6/0.45 after about 75 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dump it...

[/ QUOTE ]

Math follow up: how many hands are statistically significant in determining the aggressiveness of a Villain's post-flop play? He had a low number, but it was only after 75 hands. Any thoughts?

Jamougha · #7 02-04-2006, 06:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Villain is 66/6/0.45 after about 75 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dump it...

[/ QUOTE ]

Math follow up: how many hands are statistically significant in determining the aggressiveness of a Villain's post-flop play? He had a low number, but it was only after 75 hands. Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it doesn't really need to be statistically significant. You don't need to be 95% certain you're beaten here to fold.

However, you surely have a good idea of what sort of player he is after an hour with the guy. Unless this was data mined. Go with your own read.

epdaws · #8 02-04-2006, 07:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Villain is 66/6/0.45 after about 75 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dump it...

[/ QUOTE ]

Math follow up: how many hands are statistically significant in determining the aggressiveness of a Villain's post-flop play? He had a low number, but it was only after 75 hands. Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it doesn't really need to be statistically significant. You don't need to be 95% certain you're beaten here to fold.

However, you surely have a good idea of what sort of player he is after an hour with the guy. Unless this was data mined. Go with your own read.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree... and my read was that I can't remember any player ever check-min-raising the aggressor without at least two pair. I mucked.

Bigmoney · #9 02-04-2006, 07:37 PM

I have actually gotten it in with an overpair against similiar opponents in spots like this. But most of the time this is a fold.

bergh · #10 02-04-2006, 09:04 PM

Well, if you call you are more or less commited, so I guess you should continue only if you think the 1:3.5 implied odds are worth it. I don't thing a weak LAP is tricky enough to make that play as a bluff often enough to make it worth it.

I think folding is better unless you have a super agressive image (like firing a second barrel on the turn each time you raised pre-flop). In that case call and make sure all the money goes in on the river.