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#1
12-18-2006, 06:54 PM
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2nd nut flush, easy river raise?
10/20 5 handed. BB is overly tight, good but a bit overly aggro postflop - 24/20/3+ over about 500. defends BB only about 40% of time.
I raise on button with Ts9h, BB calls FLOP KsJs4s Villain bets, I call Turn - brick Villain checks, I check River As Villain bets, I raise, Villain 3bets.... 
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#3
12-18-2006, 08:23 PM
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Re: 2nd nut flush, easy river raise?
I'm not certain you can fold here. Raise is standard but from my experience aggro players tend to get a bit spazzy on boards like this. Although your description would contradict this somewhat I can see you being 3 bet by any spade here. The villain might incorrectly read that you'd bet the As or Qs here on the turn and now wrongly discounts them from your range. For 1 more bet just pay it off in my opinion.
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#4
12-18-2006, 08:26 PM
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Re: 2nd nut flush, easy river raise?
[ QUOTE ]
Good raise, now time to fold. [/ QUOTE ] Agree. This is a very safe spot to raise/fold. He should be betting any spade here and probably won't fold to a raise, but there is no way he would 3bet here even with the 2nd nut flush let alone the 3rd nut.
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#5
12-18-2006, 11:44 PM
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Re: 2nd nut flush, easy river raise?
for those advocating a raise/fold here. If Villain's line is that I'm a standard TAG who will cap with nut flush or fold anything else to 3 bet, how often am I raising with something other than the Qs here? Wouldn't this be a profitable 3-bet bluff then?
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#6
12-19-2006, 12:12 AM
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Re: 2nd nut flush, easy river raise?
[ QUOTE ]
for those advocating a raise/fold here. If Villain's line is that I'm a standard TAG who will cap with nut flush or fold anything else to 3 bet, how often am I raising with something other than the Qs here? Wouldn't this be a profitable 3-bet bluff then? [/ QUOTE ] If he had a specific read, then it is possible it could be, but consider the situation at hand. He has to risk 2 bets to win 6 bets, so his 3bet must work 25% of the time. A large portion of the time you have the Qs, you cap, and he must fold. A large sample of TAG players simply aren't going to fold a medium spade here because they think the chance of a bluff/tilt raise is high enough to be worth investing one more bet. Another large sample of TAGs will tell you to make this fold on every poker forum they read, but in reality make the crying call fairly often anyway. So I think it would be a pretty bad bluff attempt. That said, it is possible that many players might try this bet/3bet line anyway. When I played small stakes I would always call this 3bet and I am not sure whether it was proftiable to do so or not, but I got shown enough funky stuff that it was probably to do so versus a pretty large sample of opponents. However, I now think that folding is the best play against most opponents, assuming there isn't a long history with the villain, in which case play tends to get a bit more frisky and I think it would be pretty hard to release the second nut hand here.
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#10
12-19-2006, 02:34 AM
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Re: 2nd nut flush, easy river raise?
Wackjob,
What if we raise and he folds 20% calls 70% and re raises 10%? even if we are beat the entire 10% of times we lose an extra 2 bets then. So 1/10 we lose 2 bets The other 7/10 we gain an extra bet. Its still not a good raise? There are certainly instances where the value of the raise is thin and is contingent upon being able to release to the 3 bet. In this case I think occasionally we gain 2 bets from a spazzy 8s or 9s or complete bluff. Most of the time we gain an extra bet and a fair portion of his 3 bet hands have us beat. In this case your advice is actually awful [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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