MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis

[McFadden]

I am 100% on my own MNF thread picks (small sample size: just last week [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Rudi Johnson will have a great game, and that probably won't be a surprise... but I believe the Bengals wide receivers will also have a good night. The Colts have injuries to key defensive starters Bob Sanders (knee), Marlin Jackson (shoulder), and Antoine Bethea (shoulder), which means their pass defense will be weaker than usual.

Indy's offense has struggled as of late (aside from scoring 45 against the Eagles, they have only put up 14, 17, 17, and 17 in their other recent games) while Cinci's defense has been surprisingly good (33 points allowed in their past 4 games). Also, the Colts will be missing Dallas Clark (knee) and Brandon Stokley (Achilles) tonight, meaning the Bengals can be more focused on containing Marvin Harrison.

Although I feel like the Bengals have a decent shot at winning, the Colts are still at home and it's hard to count out Peyton Manning.

My picks:
Bengals +3.5
Under 55

[Performify]

I like both of these plays. Bengals +3.5 is my game of the week. I agree on the under as well, this game isn't going to be as high scoring as the general public would think with Rudi...Rudi...Rudi pounding the ball.

[wiper]

i'll be watching this thread the rest of the afternoon, as i have the bengals moneyline left on a 4 team money-line tease, and i'm wondering whether to lay off or not..

pretty decent chunk of money (for me) coming off a 1-unit bet..i know i should just gamboool, but right now, i'm leaning towards splitting the difference, especially if the indy moneyline keeps dropping...

[Ramstone]

What's the hook worth here if youre on cincy? I see +3 at +105, and +3 1/2 at -120. Ideas?

[Smackdab]

The total here opened at 50 1/2. Conventional wisdom tells us that when a line moves early it's the sharps causing the movement. This line wasn't moved 1 point, we're talking 4 1/2 points here guys.

I would hate to wait too long and lose a point or a half on this total but that HUGE ealy line move has given me reason to pause before I unload. I'm gonna wait at least another couple hours to see what happens.

Sure Cinci figures to run the ball and eat some clock. However, Peyton will still be putting it up and despite the injuries he's gonna connect. The Cinci DBs aren't scaring anyone and their linebackers leave alot to be desired.

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
What's the hook worth here if youre on cincy? I see +3 at +105, and +3 1/2 at -120. Ideas?

[/ QUOTE ]
25c for the NFL 3 is fairly standard market price (though 15-20c is out there depending on where you have accounts). you can get 8-9c better than what you listed on pinnacle - in terms of the straight prices, not the hook itself.

[PITTM]

fwiw i have the under at 54.5 and cincy moneyline. pinny doesnt have rudi total carries, but i would bet the over if it was less than 25.

rj

[Performify]

Interesting bit of data from KC Joyner via ESPN insider:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid...amp;id=2696061

Most pundits are pointing to the Colts' run defense as the reason this team has lost three of its last four games, but the Indianapolis offense isn't exactly holding its own. This unit has scored fewer than 20 points in four of the last five games.

The first reason this group is struggling is because Peyton Manning is taking a much more conservative approach in his passing game over the past few weeks. I tracked the Colts' pass depth distribution, starting with the Buffalo game in Week 10 through the first half of Sunday's game at Jacksonville. I excluded the second half of the game against the Jaguars, because the Colts were in comeback mode after falling behind 31-10 early in the third quarter. Here are the percentages of each type of pass for that period:

Short: 62.6
Medium: 18.4
Deep: 12.9

Compare those figures with the percentages for this season and the previous two seasons:

Peyton Manning
Depth 2004 2005 2006
Short 58.8 55.6 52.9
Medium 22.7 23.8 25.4
Deep 15.1 13.9 15.9

So why is Manning becoming more conservative? Simply put, he doesn't have as many vertical receiving options. To illustrate what I mean, here are the metrics this year for the No. 3 receivers, Dallas Clark and Brandon Stokley:

Wide Receivers
Player Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Clark 50 26 311 4 3 0 0 6.2
Stokely 12 8 85 1 0 1 21 8.8
Total 62 34 396 5 3 1 21 6.7

To put the 6.7 YPA total in perspective, when Manning posted his league-leading 9.2 YPA in 2004, Stokley averaged 9.6 yards per attempt on 124 passes. When Stokley's YPA dropped to 8.3 on 69 passes in 2005, Manning's YPA dropped to 8.3. Stokley has been out for most of this season, and that is a large reason why Manning's YPA has dropped to 7.9 this year.

Clark may have been a mediocre No. 3 wide receiver, but things have gotten worse since his injury in the Philadelphia game a couple of weeks ago. The Colts have had to move TE Bryan Fletcher to the No. 3 spot.

Consequently, the tight end position has been eliminated from the passing game. Also, Fletcher is not as good as Clark as a No. 3 receiver. Even if the Colts are able to find a way around this weakness in the next few weeks, it is certainly something they will want to address in free agency next season.

[rjp]

The numbers strongly favor the UNDER, but if Addai and Rhodes can't play then the Colts will throw every down. To get the OVER you'll need a TD by each team in every quarter.

The numbers also favor the Bengals, but three of the last four Colts games were on the road with questionable motivation. The Bengals have pretty much had to keep winning to stay in the hunt.

The Colts have clinched a playoff spot, while the Bengals have not. If the Colts lose, however, then they're going to be in a world of hurt. This game comes down to character, and in these circumstances it's hard to bet against Manning and Dungy. I wouldn't trust the Bengals' character with a 50ft pole.

The market price says the Colts win ~62% of the time, and I see no reason to deviate from that very much in either direction. With a gun to my head I'd take the Colts.

[Performify]

Not only have the Colts clenched a playoff spot, but they've clenched the first game at home.
They're only playing for home field in the second game at this point.

I think the +3.5 is huge here. I have the true line at Cincy -1.

This is my largest NFL bet of the year so far.