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#1
12-17-2006, 03:34 PM
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Another River Ruins my hand...or does it
PLO $5-10 6max on FT
Hero ($1800) limps with KJTT (KJspades) button limps SB completes BB/Villain ($covers) checks Flop T94 with 2 hearts Villain checks, I pot, 2 folds then villain calls Turn 2d I pot, villain calls River Q hearts Villain pots it. I have the nutstraight on a flush board getting 2:1. Notes on villain: loose aggressive preflop 45/11, seems to understand value of position, bit too loose with weakish hands postflop, will bet light on big streets even when bad cards for him hit, will reraise OOP w strong hands Anyone call or is this easy fold? 
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#2
12-17-2006, 04:55 PM
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Re: Another River Ruins my hand...or does it
I would think this is an automatic fold unless you have an unbelievably (and completely ridiculous) strong read that he would raise a flush draw and only call with a str8 draw on the flop and turn.
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#4
12-17-2006, 06:47 PM
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Re: Another River Ruins my hand...or does it
Well, lets analyze this. He check-called the flop and the turn. Then bets when a 3rd heart hits the river.
If he is a tighter player- I would say he has the nut or 2nd nut flush. But aggressive players BET and RAISE the nut flush draw. So its possible if he is an aggressive player that he is bluffing. Maybe he has a set of queens? He could have called your flop and turn bet with QK.
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#5
12-17-2006, 06:52 PM
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Re: Another River Ruins my hand...or does it
gerg,
You were probably thinking that you were either beat or winning against a bluff. But most likely, the majority of the time, you would be splitting or beat. You can only beat a total bluff or a worse made hand bluff by a smaller set or J8. If he check/calls with J8, a couple of the smaller flushes, and bets every tie, the rest of the flushes and only a very small percent of the time a bluff, then you are crushed in the metagame scheme of things. Of course he may well be too lag and not think like this.
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#6
12-17-2006, 10:18 PM
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Re: Another River Ruins my hand...or does it
I think this is a fold. Villian's either drawing to the straight or the flush. If he hit the straight on a flush board, he's not going to bother bluffing; he'll try to take it to showdown. If he hit the flush, you're beat.
I really don't see villian check/calling down a set and waking up on a scary river. That doesn't make any sense at all.
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