Top and bottom in limped pot

[ValarMorghulis]

Villain is 23/11/1.5 over 70 hands


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($59.33)
Button ($40.80)
<font color="#C00000">SB ($49.50)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($63.63)</font>
UTG ($50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25. UTG posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG (poster) checks, MP calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $2.3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, UTG folds, MP folds, Button folds, SB calls $49.25 (All-In)

[Unknown Soldier]

does villain do this with AQ? I doubt it, get out.

[Antinome]

I usually think 2pair+ or a draw. we beat 36 and all diamond draws. We lose to 66, Q6, or the unlikely 33.

Not as many people push with sets as draws.

Off the top of my head, I think that makes it a thin call.

[ValarMorghulis]

Yeah, I didn't think it was AQ. If it was a rainbow board I would have folded. I thought some kind of combo draw was possible. But do people push draws that much at this level?

[Antinome]

OK some half thought out maths:

we need to call 40.25 to win 101, say 1:2.5, we break even at 1/(2.5+1) or like 29%

Even throwing in only a few really good diamond draws into the mix we should call-

Board: Qd 6d 3c

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.1194 % 42.34% 00.78% { Qh3s }
Hand 2: 56.8806 % 56.10% 00.78% { 66, Ad3d, Q6s, 63s, 5d4d, Q6o, 63o }

Even without a draw in his range....

Board: Qd 6d 3c

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.6023 % 38.77% 00.83% { Qh3s }
Hand 2: 60.3977 % 59.56% 00.83% { 66, 3d3h, Q6s, 63s, Q6o, 63o }

So this is a call.

[restrikt]

Q6 I call..... Q3 is marginal.

[Sir Winalot]

I don't think I can find a fold here, I probably call.

[Smilin']

[ QUOTE ]
OK some half thought out maths:

we need to call 40.25 to win 101, say 1:2.5, we break even at 1/(2.5+1) or like 29%

Even throwing in only a few really good diamond draws into the mix we should call-

Board: Qd 6d 3c

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.1194 % 42.34% 00.78% { Qh3s }
Hand 2: 56.8806 % 56.10% 00.78% { 66, Ad3d, Q6s, 63s, 5d4d, Q6o, 63o }

Even without a draw in his range....

Board: Qd 6d 3c

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.6023 % 38.77% 00.83% { Qh3s }
Hand 2: 60.3977 % 59.56% 00.83% { 66, 3d3h, Q6s, 63s, Q6o, 63o }

So this is a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for this math. I am surprised. Even if he's never drawing, this isn't all that close. I think I need to call more pushes, because that's not my gut intuition.

[ValarMorghulis]

I think we need 40% equity to break even on this call, no (40 to win 100) So the poker stove ranges indicate that this is borderline. Also will he play bottom two pair so fast? I'm thinking myself that unless I think villain often pushes draws that I shouldn't call in this spot without top two.

Results: he had 66.