EPT Sat 7 seats 8 players (sitting 7/8)

suited_jock · #1 02-04-2006, 12:18 PM

$27 rebuys EPT sat for $650 83 runners I believe and I got to the final table 9/9.

A midstack busts 2nd hand in, after about 15 hands I get a nice double up with JJ v A10 leaves me with a nice cushion over the short stack.

We've been playing for about 45 minutes.

Noone is going out of their way to bust either me or shortie. (shortie has walked his BB twice).

What do you do and why.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t600/t1200
(Ante: t75)
8 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: t40105
UTG+1: t38670
MP1: t32890
MP2: t30890
CO: t34892
Button: t81888
SB: t12100
Hero: t20065

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to t6000, 5 folds, Hero does what and why?

Imrahil · #2 02-04-2006, 12:23 PM

I think that that big of a raise from an early position player means weakness. I would put him on AQ. He doesn't want to get called. I'd push it all in with QQ.

NHFunkii · #3 02-04-2006, 01:55 PM

I would guess there's a high probability of AK and a higher pair, with a smaller probability of a lower pair. HOWEVER, even if you could narrow it down to JUST ak (or TT-AA + AK) you still want to fold here. Vs that range you're roughly 50% to win. With the stack shorter than you, I think you have a significantly greater than 50% chance to have him get knocked out before you. If he's getting walks, you should be getting walks just as much, and even if no one makes any moves, eventually the blinds will get higher and he will have to make his move before you. If he does make a move and doubles up (keep in mind he will probably have to dodge at least a 30% shot to do this), then you can find another spot, and have a fine chance of doubling up as well. Fold.

costanza_g · #4 02-04-2006, 02:18 PM

Shove it. Shorty isn't nearly short enough to go into fold-anything mode.

UTG+1 raises to t6000?!!?!?! Wtf is that, that's 5xBB, no way he has AA/KK. Those hands want calls, this player wants folds. Your hand is way ahead of his range and your far from the end of this tourney, push.

Velocity · #5 02-04-2006, 02:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Shove it. Shorty isn't nearly short enough to go into fold-anything mode.

UTG+1 raises to t6000?!!?!?! Wtf is that, that's 5xBB, no way he has AA/KK. Those hands want calls, this player wants folds. Your hand is way ahead of his range and your far from the end of this tourney, push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I want folds in this situation with if I'm utg with KK. With the flat payout structure, i personally wouldn't want to race almost all my chips VS another mid stacks AQ at this point. 30% chance of 0 and 70% *100%chance of seat, where folding =~80%? chance of seat.

Seeing the big raise and knowing of the flat structure, I think villian's range tightens up quite a bit, to QQ+ or AK. Against which you are a coinflip at best, and most of the time dominated. I think folding is right here, not that I would like doing it.

LotsOfOuts69 · #6 02-04-2006, 02:52 PM

Anyone who is just going to throw all their chips in here pre-flop is completely wrong.

You may be short, but you have almost double the chips as the short stack. That is a HUGE edge right now, I'd probably fold.

costanza_g · #7 02-04-2006, 02:57 PM

Shorty has 10BB, are we just going to fold everything and hope he or someone else busts?

jlocdog · #8 02-04-2006, 03:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would guess there's a high probability of AK and a higher pair, with a smaller probability of a lower pair. HOWEVER, even if you could narrow it down to JUST ak (or TT-AA + AK) you still want to fold here. Vs that range you're roughly 50% to win.

****Your going to fold QQ's here. I don't think so. There is no way you can't factor in 99-JJ, as well as AQs, and maybe one other random hand like AJs or 88. Make this push here. Take a stand. You have a hand.

With the stack shorter than you, I think you have a significantly greater than 50% chance to have him get knocked out before you.

****What are you talking about? He already said that the shorty stack has had TWO free walks in the blind. They have played for 45 minutes and people are just pushing chips back and forth. Blinds are escalating making this more and more into a crapshoot. You do have a hand!

If he's getting walks, you should be getting walks just as much, and even if no one makes any moves, eventually the blinds will get higher and he will have to make his move before you. If he does make a move and doubles up (keep in mind he will probably have to dodge at least a 30% shot to do this), then you can find another spot, and have a fine chance of doubling up as well. Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

EACH PARAGRAPH THAT HAS STARS IN THE QUOTE IS ALSO MINE. DON'T KNOW HOW THAT HAPPENNED BUT TOO LAZY TO CHANGE IT.

There is no guarantee that he will get a walk in his blinds. Someone could easily wake up with a hand. Sounds to me like your looking to move up the pay ladder. This is DEFINETLY not a recipe to try to win this tourny. And what better spot are we looking for to double up with? If your waiting on AA or KK good ridens. If your looking to take down the blinds with a better spot well you should be trying to do this atleast once a round to stay afloat and gather more chips at this passive ass table. You eventually do need to double up and I don't see why QQ shouldn't be the holding. Not to mention on this hand you CAN'T go broke, you ARE heads up, and you DO have QQ!

suited_jock · #9 02-04-2006, 03:03 PM

Uhm one more bustout and everyone wins. 1st to 7th = THE SAME

suited_jock · #10 02-04-2006, 03:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is no guarantee that he will get a walk in his blinds. Someone could easily wake up with a hand. Sounds to me like your looking to move up the pay ladder. This is DEFINETLY not a recipe to try to win this tourny. And what better spot are we looking for to double up with? If your waiting on AA or KK good ridens. If your looking to take down the blinds with a better spot well you should be trying to do this atleast once a round to stay afloat and gather more chips at this passive ass table. You eventually do need to double up and I don't see why QQ shouldn't be the holding. Not to mention on this hand you CAN'T go broke, you ARE heads up, and you DO have QQ!

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke? did you read the OP