3/6 Aces on the River...Yuck

[Harv72b]

I'm relatively new to the table, I think like 2-3 orbits or so, and have been playing remarkably tight/passive...Full Tilt once again handing me a slew of offsuit junk. I do have some database hands on the villains tho, although I don't know if they are from datamining or past play (no notes).

MP1 looks typical over about 100 hands, which is to say, a little loose and a little passive. 27/10/1.1. That's all I have on him.

I have no prior hands on Button, but I've seen enough in this session to see that he's a donor. He's playing 50% of his hands and has looked very LAGish.

BB is another loose/passive, around 32/10/0.7 over 100 hands or so. He instacalled 2 cold on the flop and the turn bet.

So, knowing all of that, do any of you like the river fold getting 13:1?

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (8.5SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 folds, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9.25BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

River: (12.25BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Hero folds...

[Alex424]

probably beat but 13:1 i would always call.

He could have a missed straight draw and bluffing on the river.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
He could have a missed straight draw and bluffing on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

The KJ one or the J9 one? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Alex424]

lol, horrible board for aces but i would still call

[Niediam]

Looks like you are beat....

but I can't fold.

[Kvacke]

If the guy is passive and nontricky this cant be that far away from a fold?

[James.]

i think the fold is fine. i would like a larger sample, but based on reading villain's hand i don't think we're good even 8% of the time in that spot.

[lasa]

Think I could find a fold here. Flush draw got there, straight draws with J beat us and it's a passive guy betting into us. And we still have a button behind us to act which could of very well drawn out on us also with the Jc.

[Allday Everyday]

I don't fold aces postflop as often as I should. I think this is a time that it should be done.

Given your read on the BB, I'm not sure we're ahead of him enough to make a call profitable. With the player left behind us, I think our cards need to be even better to call than if we were HU with the BB.

[NNNNOOOOONAN]

0.7 = fold. i'm not a particular fan of making plays based on PT numbers but sometimes it has to be done. i would probably even say up to a 1.0 is a fold. this is a scary ass board no matter what and somebody that passive....it's not easy but like Allday said, sometimes it has to be done.