AK tough spot early

durkahdurkah · #1 12-14-2006, 10:22 PM

Stars $25 + $2.50, Early on. CO seems like he could be steaming, as he lost a sizable hand 2 hands ago and pushed the hand before this. BB seems like a decent, thinking player, TAG.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 (t2015)
CO (t1085)
Button (t2800)
SB (t1465)
BB (t1805)
UTG (t1600)
Hero (t2645)
MP1 (t1235)
MP2 (t1735)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to t95, 3 folds, CO raises to t1085, 2 folds, BB raises to t1805, Hero ???

AllinDan · #2 12-14-2006, 10:25 PM

I like a call here. CO's range should be huge, and given this, BB's range should be pretty wide. It's early, you're probably moderately to very +cEV here, gamble it up.

TheBlueMonster · #3 12-14-2006, 11:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like a call here. CO's range should be huge, and given this, BB's range should be pretty wide. It's early, you're probably moderately to very +cEV here, gamble it up.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't like a call here. If BB is really TAG and a thinking player, the worst he has here is 10s or JJ. I think this is too early to gamble.

RobTheDuck · #4 12-14-2006, 11:15 PM

You're definately ahead of the CO, so you're essentially playing against the BB. The BB could have AK as well, then the two of you will chop up COs 1000 chips.

On the other hand, if the CO has Ax, and the BB has a pair like JJ or QQ, then you are already down to a maximum of 5 outs.

I know I haven't answered your question, but I hope I've given you a couple more things to think about.

durkahdurkah · #5 12-14-2006, 11:21 PM

A hand like TT or JJ is certainly something that I was thinking would be in BB's range, but how often does a thinking player isolate here with a hand like AQ (or even AJ)?

SuperUberBob · #6 12-14-2006, 11:27 PM

If BB isn't an idiot, I fold.

You have a fairly deep stack and at best you're tied against another AK.

duvvard · #7 12-15-2006, 12:11 AM

I'd fold, especially since you have 2600 already in a pretty fast structure, if you had under 1800 I'd be a lot more prone to gamble. I think I'd put BB's range on JJ+ and AK, COULD be AQ, but if he's TAG I dont think hes forgotten about you being in the hand also.

durkahdurkah · #8 12-15-2006, 12:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold, especially since you have 2600 already in a pretty fast structure, if you had under 1800 I'd be a lot more prone to gamble. I think I'd put BB's range on JJ+ and AK, COULD be AQ, but if he's TAG I dont think hes forgotten about you being in the hand also.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, the size of my stack isn't too much of a concern to me. Yes, I'm comfortable for the moment, but as you mention, this is a fast-ish structure, so I still like to accumulate chips so I can stay comfortable.

Also, keep in mind I'm getting like 1.7-1 on a call here.

duvvard · #9 12-15-2006, 12:59 AM

I ran a few scenarios for the #'s...the times neither have AA or KK (10-15% of time they will have one of those? obv bb way more likely) you are usually around 30-35% to win against 2 underpairs....underpair and sharing 1 card...etc. Couple that w/ the instances where one of them does have you in real bad shape, and its probably right around a borderline EV move. Like I said earlier, for me it does come down to my stack size, w/ 2500 left I still have plenty of time to find good spots to accumulate/steal and have above avg stack at break. I think w/ 1500-2100 chips I'm more willing to gamble to get to 5k.

AllinDan · #10 12-15-2006, 01:38 AM

guys, stack size really isn't an issue here. this early in a tournament +cEV is +cEV and if the move is good with 1800 its good with 2600. Things really just depend on how much this thinking Tag is willing to adjust his iso range vs tilting CO after your early raise. While of course he can have AA/KK, it's more likely he has a lower pair, AK, or even AQ, and it's not at all a given that some of your outs are dead.

However, your stove equity isn't as good as I expected, so I'm not entirely sure on the situation