Gross Spot with Bottom set

[grindplz]

No read on SB
UTG has been 4 betting me all night and I havent played back at him to often. (21/16/3)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($5384.55)
SB ($490)
BB ($999)
UTG ($1188)
MP ($2629.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $30</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $30, SB calls $25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($100) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $70</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $220</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $460</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1158</font> Hero?

Its 938 to me and the pots around 1900

[Big_Jim]

drop it

[luckychewy]

jim, sb is ai. i push/call this all day.

[Big_Jim]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.4212 % 32.70% 05.72% { AA, QQ, 99, KsTs, Q9s, JTs, JTo }
Hand 2: 38.4212 % 32.70% 05.72% { AA, QQ, 99, KsTs, Q9s, JTs, JTo }
Hand 3: 23.1577 % 22.85% 00.31% { 88 }

Honestly, I"m not really sure how the side pot affects this. I'll have to think about that.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
jim, sb is ai. i push/call this all day.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just feel his flop raise is really strong, here.

[Josh.]

i'd get it in. sb doesn't need much and as a half stacker, i wouldn't give him that much credit. i don't think most players do give that much credit to short stacks either, so i wouldn't be surprised for utg to shove here with AQ or an overpair, and obviously draws and combo draws. someone has to have a set pretty damn often for this to be a fold.

[Big_Jim]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.1373 % 31.25% 03.89% { AA, QQ, 99, AQs, AsTs, KQs, KsTs, Q9s, JTs, JTo }
Hand 2: 35.1373 % 31.25% 03.89% { AA, QQ, 99, AQs, AsTs, KQs, KsTs, Q9s, JTs, JTo }
Hand 3: 29.7254 % 29.46% 00.27% { 88 }

A wider range

[FireStorm]

Fold, you are losing to 99 wayyyyyy too often in this spot. JT also looms. If there was ever a spot to fold bottom set, this is it. UTG has just 4 bet this flop, what does he have that you beat?

[KLJ]

i never make this fold but i feel like you should

[Big_Jim]

Looser Range
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.7649 % 47.21% 00.56% { AA, QQ, 99, AQs, AsTs, KQs, KsTs, Q9s, JTs, JTo }
Hand 2: 52.2351 % 51.68% 00.56% { 88 }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.1373 % 31.25% 03.89% { AA, QQ, 99, AQs, AsTs, KQs, KsTs, Q9s, JTs, JTo }
Hand 2: 35.1373 % 31.25% 03.89% { AA, QQ, 99, AQs, AsTs, KQs, KsTs, Q9s, JTs, JTo }
Hand 3: 29.7254 % 29.46% 00.27% { 88 }

Tight Range
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 56.6379 % 56.05% 00.59% { AA, QQ, 99, KsTs, Q9s, JTs, JTo }
Hand 2: 43.3621 % 42.77% 00.59% { 88 }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.4212 % 32.70% 05.72% { AA, QQ, 99, KsTs, Q9s, JTs, JTo }
Hand 2: 38.4212 % 32.70% 05.72% { AA, QQ, 99, KsTs, Q9s, JTs, JTo }
Hand 3: 23.1577 % 22.85% 00.31% { 88 }



Calcs with Looser Range
Sidepot Calc:
Main pot: $1480
You have 23% equity here, or $349

Side pot: $1396
We have 47% equity here or $656

$430+$656 &gt; $938, so it's a call, using the wider range.

Calcs with Tight Range
Sidepot Calc:
Main pot: $1480
You have 23% equity here, or $340

Side pot: $1396
We have 43% equity here or $600

$600+$340 &gt; $938, so it's an hysterically close call, using the tight range.