Pooh Bah Post: Picking Off Bluffs...

[JSH06]

I didn't post much until recently. A couple months ago I made a goal to post more & then I kind of went crazy for a while. So here I am at post 1600. I'd like to give a special thanks to everyone on the forumn. This is the best place to go for free SNG info. I wouldn't be where I am with my poker game today if I hadn't discovered these forumns and SNGPT. Most of you know that I play 6 mans exclusively. Most of the people on the forumn play 9 mans. 6 mans are a lot different than 9 mans but I have still been able to learn a lot from reading & posting on the forumns. It's also very entertaining at times. That said, I think a lot of people are going to disagree with the 1st part of my post. Feel free to express your honest opinions. When I wrote it I fully expected the 1st part to be pretty controversial. I already know of one respected poster who disagrees with me. I know some people will say "well your opponents don't think, blah blah blah." The reality is that most of our opponents do think beyond the 1st level. The may be horrid poker players but they still think about what kinds of hands you are holding, and change their opinions based on how the hand plays out. Most of what was just said can probably be ignored when considering many low stakes players. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

One of the easiest bluffs to spot is when there is a bet on the flop, the turn is checked around, and then someone comes out with a large river bet. This betting tell is more reliable when there was a draw on the flop, and is usually more reliable when the pot was raised preflop and is large enough to make stabbing at it on the river worthwhile. Take the following example:

UTG (3100)
Villain (1700)
Hero (1800)
SB (3400)
BB (3500)

Dealt to Hero: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Blinds: 25/50

UTG folds, Villain calls, Hero raises to 200, 2 folds, Villain calls 150

Flop (475)

J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets 275, Villain calls

Turn (1025)

J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero checks

River (1025)

J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain pushes all in for 1225

We’ll ignore whether betting or checking the flop is best because it’s irrelevant to the point being made. It’s going to take some big balls but you should strongly consider calling the river. Put yourself in your opponent’s shoes. You raised preflop, bet the flop, and then checked the turn. It really looks like you have overcards or a weakfish pair, c-bet the flop, and then gave up on the hand. He can’t expect you to call a big river bet. If he had a pair of jacks or better he would make a smaller value bet that you are more likely to call. If he had a pair of tens he would either make a small value bet or check to induce a bluff. Therefore, he must have a hand that he feels is second best but could win the pot with a big bet that forces you to fold the best hand. I would expect to see a whiffed flush draw or something like KQ the majority of the time here, and I would usually call with a pair of 9s in this spot. The problem with people when they bluff is they usually bet a lot more than they need to. In this hand, if my opponent were to make a smaller bet of ½ the pot or less I would be much more likely to read it as a value bet and fold. A big bet just screams bluff. Your opponent thinks you’re more likely to fold to a bigger bet, when in reality the reverse is true for me.

It should be noted that you need to take this advice with caution. You need o be pretty certain they’re bluffing over half of the time. From my experience, I think it’s a bluff between 65 & 75% of the time. I sent this to Slim on IM and he disagreed. He thinks it’s more like 1/3 of the time. His playing style is much different than mine though and people may just play him differently. I figured I’d post it anyway and probably get berated. It should at least trigger some interesting discussion. It can also be very player dependant. I’m certainly not advocating calling 100% of the time here. At the lower levels this betting tell may be less reliable as your opponents don’t really consider anything but their cards. I would also be cautious if you’ve already made a call in a similar spot at the same table. A thinking player may have noted this and simply be putting a move on you. I would also make a note on any player regardless of whether they have a hand or not when you do call. This way you will be better prepared if this player makes the same move in the future. Just hope that he doesn’t remember this hand & reverse it on you. Also, a lot of bubble situations would make me lean toward a fold here. I have made calls like these countless times over the past year & I am usually right, but I rarely see anyone else making them. Therefore, I figured it would be a good subject for a pooh bah post. Maybe people bluff there whiffed draws more in 6 mans but I would imagine it applies to 9 mans as well. If you call and are wrong, don’t get results oriented. Just make a note and move on.

Another common bluff (sometimes just a donk thinking their hand is good) is when someones limps behind a limper or limpers and then you make a large raise and they push over over the top of your raise. They think you are just making the raise the limpers play & decide that they need to take a stand. Here is an example:

UTG (2000)
UTG+1 (3000)
CO (2200)
Button (3000)
SB (1450)
Hero (1850)

Hero is BB w/ T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Blinds: 15/30

UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises to 180 to 210, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Button pushes all in

I would definitely call with TT here and I’d consider calling w/ 99 as well. The limp re-raise is often a very strong hand. Donks hear that the Super System is the “Bible of Poker” so they go pick it up and read it. While reading it they see that Doyle likes to limp re-raise his strong hands so they think “ZOMG the limp re-raise is so cool, Doyle does it, I’m going to limp re-raise my big hands & play like Doyle.” However, they usually only do this if are the 1st person to enter the pot. No one really recommends limping big hands after limpers. Most in fact say that it is a recipe for disaster. Therefore, most players just don’t do it. In this hand, the most common hands you will see from button are small/medium pairs & Ax, as well as some other weakfish hands. It sucks if you call and are in a coin flip, but there’s already a descent amount of money in the pot, you’re rarely dominated, and you are often in a dominating position.

Just remember that you don’t always need big hands to win big pots. You just have to be good at hand reading and read your opponent like an open book.

There's nothing ground breaking here but hopefully it should at least spark some discussion.


Thanks again STTF,
-Hub

[FoldYourLife]

Congrats on the Pooh Bah. I respect your posts.
Regarding the first part, I make those types of calls sometimes, but I wouldn't do it a whole lot unless I have a strong read that my opponent is likely to be bluffing. For one, my opponent has to be capable of this type of bluff, and two, he has to have a range that fits in with a missed draw.
The second part is pretty standard (though your example is iffy because you'd be better off checking TT in the first place). If the re-raise AI comes from the original limper, it shows a lot more strength, as they could have open-limped AA or KK. However, if it comes the 2nd or 3rd limper, they are probably FOS, as very few players will limp huge hands after another limper.

[AMT]

im kind of torn on the first point. i tend more to agree with Slim, i just dont think the bluff frequency is as high as you claim it to be. i also think a hand that is bluffing but beats you is still semi likely, and is a big factor in determining if this is a call.

on the 2nd point, i agree with most of your point, i just want to make it clear that even though a lot of small pairs and possible Ax hands are in those limp/reraisers ranges, it does not always warrant a call. it depends on your hand, reads on the specific player, table dynamics, etc.... that said, of course i do often call when the pot grows big like this and i put my opponent on a relatively small range, but sometimes it occurs in a situation that id pass on...sometimes they do have a hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


congrats on poo bah, i hope you keep posting, nice read and its been good talking with you thus far. best of luck in future

[Eagles]

congrats this is a good post, as long as people take the advice with a grain of salt. I agree with you hear but obviously you can't be calling spots like this all the time but calling them some of the time is a good way to make more money.

[JSH06]

[ QUOTE ]
Congrats on the Pooh Bah. I respect your posts.
Regarding the first part, I make those types of calls sometimes, but I wouldn't do it a whole lot unless I have a strong read that my opponent is likely to be bluffing. For one, my opponent has to be capable of this type of bluff, and two, he has to have a range that fits in with a missed draw.
The second part is pretty standard (though your example is iffy because you'd be better off checking TT in the first place). If the re-raise AI comes from the original limper, it shows a lot more strength, as they could have open-limped AA or KK. However, if it comes the 2nd or 3rd limper, they are probably FOS, as very few players will limp huge hands after another limper.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think part of it that makes the 1st hand a call more often in a 6 man is because people are on much wider hand ranges. So it is probably correct that it is a call a lot less often in a 9 man.

As for the raise with TT, I think this is standard for a 6 man. I guess most people probably still check it in a 9 man even if it is 6 handed. In 6 mans we open up our games a lot more preflop. Perhaps I could have found a better example. I had already changed it once though.

[FoldYourLife]

One other thing regarding the calls in your first example, is that you have to be able to differentiate a missed draw with a value shove. Your opponent could have a monster, which he would be wise to bet for value, or he could be making a (thin) value shove w/ QJ, thinking his top pair is the nuts. It sounds like what you are doing is working, and that's all that really matters.

[JSH06]

[ QUOTE ]
One other thing regarding the calls in your first example, is that you have to be able to differentiate a missed draw with a value shove. Your opponent could have a monster, which he would be wise to bet for value, or he could be making a (thin) value shove w/ QJ, thinking his top pair is the nuts. It sounds like what you are doing is working, and that's all that really matters.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my only thing is that when value betting they USUALLY will make a bet smaller than the pot when the pot is this large after you checked the turn. I already explained the reasoning for this in the OP though so no need to go into any more detail. It's definitely an odd value bet sometimes though.

[The Yugoslavian]

bah I looked at the hands without realizing you play 6man stts...I have no clue what you should do. My guess is fold 1 and call 2....but I'm not too excited about calling 2 and am fine with a fold and note (ppl who push there weak do it over and over again for some dumb reason).

Yugoslav

[Hercules]

Congra to Puh-bah....interesting, though i disagree to point 1 as you already said many would do...
Maybe its just because i play my good hands like your opponents play bluffs...But thats exactly what i want them to think. Maybe a few months ago "slowplaying" was the way to win. Today everybody is slowplaying monsters (i mean the average SNG donk, not 2+2 *lol*), thus nobody believes you when you`re "fastplaying". And i thank them every time for slowplaying, because they could stack me so often just because i wouldnt believe them if they pushed and i had a good TPTK etc...
I don`t know how to explain it, but it seems like there is a "common sense" in SNG`s. With common sense, i mean the way most people play. Even the often recitated morons have a "system" and there is somehow a intersection between these "system", for example like slowplaying a set on the flop etc...
But this system seems to flow. And there is a trend coming up to straight play (maybe because of so many 2+2ers). So i always have to keep attentive if the players are more inclined to fastplay so i can change again to slowplaying etc...(btw...i got busted a week ago with JJ by a KK flop-push on an under board, because i didnt believe him; the turn K would have given me an easy fold...)
Ok, what has that to do with your post JSH?! If the "trend" is more going to fastplay, i would be less willing to call a huge bet, for the given reasons. In this case you are way more often behind. Of course you have my respect for your tough calls (and probably very good reads, otherwise you`d never post that...), but i am also gladly waiting for you to call my boat with a bluff-catcher...[and i am making damn sure that i bluff you out the next time when i have nothing]
I really have no problem to push 1400 in a 250 pot, if i got the nuts or 2nd nuts. Many times they fold, but i think its worth the time suspicous charakters like you look me up. Of course i mix it up, but its not to necessesary at the moment.
Ok, so i disagree with calling in these spots unless you really have a perfect read (like you seem to have often; i call here maybe 0,5%). IMO its just not worth the risk, if you feel you play better than villains...If the edges get smaller, ok, then lets over think it...

Ok point two...here i totally agree with you. If the stats of Villain are laggy i like a push here. I`m doing that move pretty often, but i get called very rarely. Although i think we are telling nothing revolutionary...not to mention that TT in a 6 man is significantly stronger than 9 man...

Ok JSH, i liked many of your posts, when i began here a month ago. GL...and pls stay in 6man, so i dont have to play you

[JSH06]

[ QUOTE ]
Congra to Puh-bah....interesting, though i disagree to point 1 as you already said many would do...
Maybe its just because i play my good hands like your opponents play bluffs...But thats exactly what i want them to think. Maybe a few months ago "slowplaying" was the way to win. Today everybody is slowplaying monsters (i mean the average SNG donk, not 2+2 *lol*), thus nobody believes you when you`re "fastplaying". And i thank them every time for slowplaying, because they could stack me so often just because i wouldnt believe them if they pushed and i had a good TPTK etc...
I don`t know how to explain it, but it seems like there is a "common sense" in SNG`s. With common sense, i mean the way most people play. Even the often recitated morons have a "system" and there is somehow a intersection between these "system", for example like slowplaying a set on the flop etc...
But this system seems to flow. And there is a trend coming up to straight play (maybe because of so many 2+2ers). So i always have to keep attentive if the players are more inclined to fastplay so i can change again to slowplaying etc...(btw...i got busted a week ago with JJ by a KK flop-push on an under board, because i didnt believe him; the turn K would have given me an easy fold...)
Ok, what has that to do with your post JSH?! If the "trend" is more going to fastplay, i would be less willing to call a huge bet, for the given reasons. In this case you are way more often behind. Of course you have my respect for your tough calls (and probably very good reads, otherwise you`d never post that...), but i am also gladly waiting for you to call my boat with a bluff-catcher...[and i am making damn sure that i bluff you out the next time when i have nothing]
I really have no problem to push 1400 in a 250 pot, if i got the nuts or 2nd nuts. Many times they fold, but i think its worth the time suspicous charakters like you look me up. Of course i mix it up, but its not to necessesary at the moment.
Ok, so i disagree with calling in these spots unless you really have a perfect read (like you seem to have often; i call here maybe 0,5%). IMO its just not worth the risk, if you feel you play better than villains...If the edges get smaller, ok, then lets over think it...

Ok point two...here i totally agree with you. If the stats of Villain are laggy i like a push here. I`m doing that move pretty often, but i get called very rarely. Although i think we are telling nothing revolutionary...not to mention that TT in a 6 man is significantly stronger than 9 man...

Ok JSH, i liked many of your posts, when i began here a month ago. GL...and pls stay in 6man, so i dont have to play you

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt that there are people out there like you that will play their good hands like this. I'm just saying, in general, it's usually a bluff. This is exactly why we can't always make these calls and have to be careful about making these calls twice at the same table or against the same Villain. Thinking players will see you making these calls and start making more moves on you. That's kind of why I made sure to note in my post that this advice should be taken with caution, etc... I'm glad you enjoy my posts.

-Hub